Stocks fell after a weak durable goods orders report. The pop we saw in May and June has faded. We also get U of M’s consumer confidence poll and existing home sales. Fed Governor Warsh had an editorial in the Washington Post, saying that the Fed may tighten earlier and more aggressively than in the past. They want to avoid creating another asset bubble. He also said the world’s economy is ramped up on government stimulus, and it could fade quickly if tightening began. The WSJ is reporting that House Speaker Pelosi is pushing for a public option for health care. Ex Japanese MOF Sakakibara (“Mr. Yen”) said that Japan will not act if the dollar falls below 90 yen. This corresponds to roughly 111 basis JYZ. The weak durable goods report aided the USD on risk, and pushed down crude oil on demand concerns.
Dec. S&P: Momentum is down to buy signal levels, but overnight strength has faded. The bearish MACD crossover should concern the bulls.
Dec. NASDAQ: 1688 is Fib retracement support, and it’s a momentum buy day. Holding here could keep them from falling apart.
Dec. Dow: Momentum buy day; there’s important support at the old high of 9576.
Dec. Dollar Index: This week’s high is 77.355 and momentum is at a short sale level. MACD is nearing a bullish crossover, but they may need to consolidate a bit before advancing farther.
Support is 76.66.
Dec. Yen: cleared trendline resistance at 11040, the recent high at 11104 is resistance
Dec. Euro FX: This week’s low at 14610 is support and momentum is at buy signal levels. It looks like the mirror image of the DX-readying for as downside breakout.
Dec. British Pound: 16022 was the low from July; regaining that might allow for a correction. It’s bearish under 161.
Dec. Gold: It’s on a fresh bearish MACD crossover after yesterday’s downside breakout of the triangle. The early Sept. low at 993.20 is support.
Dec. Silver: The break under the May high at 1625 is bearish.
March Sugar: Reaching the apex of a triangle; legs are at 2336 and 2262 today. It was also an ID and a doji, so there could be a directional move today.
Dec. Coffee: It broke Fib retracement support at 129.15; watch to see if it rebounds back over there. 130.50 is a rally objective.
Dec. Cotton: With the way the 65.00 area has served as a ceiling, there will probably be a lot of buying pressure if it’s taken out.
Is today the day they do so, and can it stay over?
Dec. Live Cattle: Breakout day today; watch yesterday’s range (h=85.75, l=85.00) as breakout points.
Dec Lean Hogs: Still trading within Wednesday’s range. There’s a major USDA report on hogs after the close, trade accordingly.
Nov. Soybeans: Three doji days; will today be the day they make a move out of it?
Dec. Wheat: It’s a momentum sell short day today; look to buy a break. 464 is support.
Dec. Corn: A strong advance this week in spite of the collapse in crude. There’s trendline resistance at 341-4.
This is the morning update to my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
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