September Dow Jones – The early session rally came to screeching halt, limiting the biggest quarterly advance for the S&P 500 Index since 1998, after consumer confidence declined more than expected and delinquencies on the least risky mortgages more than doubled. On the charts the market topped just shy of the 8560 resistance I talked about in the last issue, but it was against the downward sloping red line and 20-day SMA. I view this as a bearish pattern and that would trigger a sell on a trade below 8320.

August Crude oil –Crude oil tumbled from an eight- month high as U.S. consumer confidence declined in June, indicating lower fuel demand. The early morning rally quickly reversed near the top of the sell zone and closed lower than the opening price. A trade below Monday’s low (6836) would complete the final segment of the TR pattern and trigger the sell signal and a significant trend shift. – Sell the Crude oil at 6832 stop with a protective stop above Tuesday’s high.

August Gold – Long form $927.50- Gold dipped into the 60% buy window on a projected reversal date. The buy at the lower red line was a little aggressive, but the price action is forming a bullish TR pattern. A trade above Tuesday’s high will confirm the major TR pattern and portend a test of the recent high. – Hold the long position with the protective stop at $910.50.

September Eurocurrency –Long from 1.4025 – The bullish TR (Trend Reversal) is still suggesting higher prices, but, as I discussed in the last issue, the market appears to be losing momentum. Therefore, I think it best to exit and stand aside.

 

September British Pound – Long from 1.6510– In the last issue I said it was time to exit because the pattern had been moving sideways for too long and it was losing energy and would fail… and it did. After a quick rally to a new during overnight trading the BP reversed and closed sharply lower. The long position should have been exited at 1.6560 for a small gain.

 

September Australian dollar – Long from 8010 –Hold the long position and move the protective stop to 7925.