Today’s losses in most Indexes generated several Sell Signals with many Indexes failing blow their 50 day moving average. The 50 day moving average has a tendency for many false signals and we are seeing them over the past couple months of this sideways market.
We track 29 trading plans and provide Daily Signals for 53 Indexes in our Daily Trading Signal Service We monitor trading signals for 53 Indexes at www.seleznovcapitaladvisors.com
System Trader’s and Market Timing traders may use the 50 day Simple Moving Average as their trading plan. The 50 day moving average is basic technical analysis. It is a good market timing trading plan for active trading in indexes and ETF’s that have trend following characteristics. It can produce disastrous results if used for every stock index, ETF, or stock.
Other widely followed moving averages are the 100 day moving average and the 200 day moving average. Some money managers will use these moving averages with a shorter moving average and use the cross of the shorter moving average above or below the longer moving average to generate trading signals. The Wall Street Journal displays the 65 day moving average in their charts. The goal of two moving averages and even 3 moving averages is to eliminate whipsaws that often occur with moving averages as a technical analysis indicator.
Why should you care about the signals produced with the 50 day moving average? There are so many people using the 50 day moving average, that we will often see extreme volatility in indexes when they cross both above and below the 50 day moving average.
The below table shows the current 50 day simple moving average condition on the 50 most actively traded ETF’s.
| Security Name | Trend2 | Ticker |
| Barclays High Yield Bond | Stay Long | JNK |
| BRIC IShares | Stay Long | BKF |
| Coal Power Shares | Stay Long | PKOL |
| DB Commodity Index | Stay Long | DBC |
| Diamond Trust DOW | New Short | DIA |
| Energy Select SPDR | New Short | XLE |
| Internet Holders | Stay Long | HHH |
| IPath India Index | Stay Long | INP |
| IShare Russell 2000 | Stay Short | IWM |
| IShares 25 Index | New Short | FXI |
| IShares Australia | Stay Long | EWA |
| IShares Basic Materials | Stay Long | IYM |
| IShares DJ Real Estate | Stay Long | IYR |
| Ishares DJ Transportation | New Short | IYT |
| Ishares Emerging Markets | Stay Long | EEM |
| IShares Financial Sector | Stay Short | IYF |
| IShares Germany | New Short | EWG |
| IShares Hong Kong | Stay Long | EWH |
| IShares Latin America | Stay Long | ILF |
| IShares Mexico | New Short | EWW |
| IShares Mid Cap 400 | New Short | IJH |
| IShares MSCI EAFE | Stay Long | EFA |
| IShares MSCI Japan | Stay Long | EWJ |
| IShares Pacific ex Japan | Stay Long | EPP |
| IShares S&P 500 Growth | New Short | IVW |
| Ishares S&P Small Cap 600 | Stay Short | IJR |
| IShares Silver | Stay Long | SLV |
| IShares South Africa | Stay Long | EZA |
| IShares South Korea | Stay Long | EWY |
| IShares Taiwan | Stay Long | EWT |
| IShares United Kingdom | Stay Long | EWU |
| NDX 100 | New Short | QQQQ |
| Oil Service Holders | New Short | OIH |
| Pharmaceutical Holders | Stay Long | PPH |
| PowerShares US Dollar Index | Stay Short | UUP |
| Russia | Stay Long | RSX |
| RYDEX S&P 500 Equal Weight | New Short | RSP |
| S&P 500 | New Short | SPY |
| Semiconductor Holders | Stay Short | SMH |
| SPDR Consumer Descretionary | New Short | XLY |
| SPDR Consumer Staples | Stay Long | XLP |
| SPDR Gold Shares | Stay Long | GLD |
| SPDR Healthcare | New Short | XLV |
| SPDR Industrial Sector | New Short | XLI |
| SPDR International Real Estate | Stay Long | RWX |
| SPDR Materials | Stay Long | XLB |
| SPDR Metal & Mining | Stay Long | XME |
| SPDR Mid Cap | New Short | MDY |
| SPDR S&P Homebuilders | Stay Short | XHB |
| SPDR Technology | Stay Short | XLK |
| Steel Market Vector | Stay Long | SLX |
| US Oil | Stay Short | USO |
| Wisdom Tree Total Dividend | Stay Long | DTD |
You should not trade any system trading plan without proper back testing and analysis of the trading characteristics of the index, stock or ETF you are trading.
These trading signals are provided courtesy of the website you are viewing. This information should not be used without research and advice from a financial professional.
Be aware that this condition can and will change any day in the future.
We monitor the 50 day moving average daily along with a number of other system trading plans.
There is No “Holy Grail” in trading systems. Do not use the 50 day SMA or any other system trading system without proper research on the asset.
For questions on rule based, system trading, contact
mark@seleznovcapitaladvisors.com
www.seleznovcapitaladvisors.com
