The down week that has now filled the gap of November 4, 2010 is now taking a toll on some short term Indexes by breaking below their 50 day moving average. The 50 day moving average is one of the shortest moving averages that a trader should use. It was a good indicator at the April 25th top. Let’s watch to see if it is correct this time for longer term Trend Following systems.
We track 29 trading plans and provide Daily Signals for 53 Indexes in our Daily Trading Signal Service We monitor trading signals for 53 Indexes at www.seleznovcapitaladvisors.com You may also sign up for our Free Weekly Commentary and Daily 50 Day moving average signals on 22 Indexes at the top right of our home page at www.seleznovcapitaladvisors.com
System Trader’s and Market Timing traders may use the 50 day Simple Moving Average as their trading plan. The 50 day moving average is basic technical analysis. It is a good market timing trading plan for active trading in indexes and ETF’s that have trend following characteristics. It can produce disastrous results if used for every stock index, ETF, or stock.
Other widely followed moving averages are the 100 day moving average and the 200 day moving average. Some money managers will use these moving averages with a shorter moving average and use the cross of the shorter moving average above or below the longer moving average to generate trading signals. The Wall Street Journal displays the 65 day moving average in their charts. The goal of two moving averages and even 3 moving averages is to eliminate whipsaws that often occur with moving averages as a technical analysis indicator.
Why should you care about the signals produced with the 50 day moving average? There are so many people using the 50 day moving average, that we will often see extreme volatility in indexes when they cross both above and below the 50 day moving average.
The below table shows the current 50 day simple moving average condition on the 50 most actively traded ETF’s.
| Security Name | Trend2 | Ticker |
| Barclays High Yield Bond | New Short | JNK |
| BRIC IShares | New Short | BKF |
| Coal Power Shares | Stay Long | PKOL |
| DB Commodity Index | New Short | DBC |
| Diamond Trust DOW | Stay Long | DIA |
| Energy Select SPDR | Stay Long | XLE |
| Internet Holders | Stay Long | HHH |
| IPath India Index | Stay Short | INP |
| IShare Russell 2000 | Stay Long | IWM |
| IShares 25 Index | New Short | FXI |
| IShares Australia | New Short | EWA |
| IShares Basic Materials | Stay Long | IYM |
| IShares DJ Real Estate | Stay Short | IYR |
| Ishares DJ Transportation | Stay Long | IYT |
| Ishares Emerging Markets | New Short | EEM |
| IShares Financial Sector | Stay Long | IYF |
| IShares Germany | Stay Long | EWG |
| IShares Hong Kong | Stay Long | EWH |
| IShares Latin America | New Short | ILF |
| IShares Mexico | Stay Long | EWW |
| IShares Mid Cap 400 | Stay Long | IJH |
| IShares MSCI EAFE | New Short | EFA |
| IShares MSCI Japan | Stay Long | EWJ |
| IShares Pacific ex Japan | Stay Long | EPP |
| IShares S&P 500 Growth | Stay Long | IVW |
| Ishares S&P Small Cap 600 | Stay Long | IJR |
| IShares Silver | Stay Long | SLV |
| IShares South Africa | Stay Long | EZA |
| IShares South Korea | New Short | EWY |
| IShares Taiwan | Stay Long | EWT |
| IShares United Kingdom | Stay Long | EWU |
| NDX 100 | Stay Long | QQQQ |
| Oil Service Holders | Stay Long | OIH |
| Pharmaceutical Holders | Stay Short | PPH |
| PowerShares US Dollar Index | New Long | UUP |
| Russia | Stay Long | RSX |
| RYDEX S&P 500 Equal Weight | Stay Long | RSP |
| S&P 500 | Stay Long | SPY |
| Semiconductor Holders | Stay Long | SMH |
| SPDR Consumer Descretionary | Stay Long | XLY |
| SPDR Consumer Staples | Stay Long | XLP |
| SPDR Gold Shares | Stay Long | GLD |
| SPDR Healthcare | New Short | XLV |
| SPDR Industrial Sector | Stay Long | XLI |
| SPDR International Real Estate | New Short | RWX |
| SPDR Materials | Stay Long | XLB |
| SPDR Metal & Mining | Stay Long | XME |
| SPDR Mid Cap | Stay Long | MDY |
| SPDR S&P Homebuilders | New Short | XHB |
| SPDR Technology | Stay Long | XLK |
| Steel Market Vector | Stay Long | SLX |
| US Oil | Stay Long | USO |
| Wisdom Tree Total Dividend | Stay Long | DTD |
You should not trade any system trading plan without proper back testing and analysis of the trading characteristics of the index, stock or ETF you are trading.
These trading signals are provided courtesy of the website you are viewing. This information should not be used without research and advice from a financial professional.
Be aware that this condition can and will change any day in the future.
We monitor the 50 day moving average daily along with a number of other system trading plans.
There is No “Holy Grail” in trading systems. Do not use the 50 day SMA or any other system trading system without proper research on the asset.
For questions on rule based, system trading, contact
mark@seleznovcapitaladvisors.com
www.seleznovcapitaladvisors.com
