This was a nice up week in the markets with many Indexes and ETF’s at or above their 200 day moving average. Today, September 3, 2010 the DIA, Diamonds and QQQQ, Nasdaq 1000 ETF’s closed above their 200 day moving averages. Also notable was the closing of the UUP, U.S. Dollar Indexes closing below its 200 day moving average.
Over the past couple months, these have been false breakouts. The action next week will give us a clue if this will be another false breakout or a new Trend.
At Seleznov Capital Advisors we watch these key levels to see the Index breaks down or the trend continues up. You can get these trading alerts nightly from our Daily Trading Signals Service.
System Trader’s and Market Timing traders may use the 200 day Simple Moving Average as their trading plan. The 200 day moving average is basic technical analysis. It is a good market timing trading plan for active trading in indexes and ETF’s that have trend following characteristics. It can produce disastrous results if used for every stock index, ETF, or stock.
Other widely followed moving averages are the 50 day moving average and the 100 day moving average. Some money managers will use these moving averages with a shorter moving average and use the cross of the shorter moving average above or below the longer moving average to generate trading signals. The Wall Street Journal displays a 65 Day Moving Average in their charts. The goal of two moving averages and even 3 moving averages is to eliminate whipsaws that often occur with moving averages as a technical analysis indicator.
Why should you care about the signals produced with the 200 day moving average? There are so many people using the 200 day moving average, that we will often see extreme volatility in indexes when they cross both above and below the 200 day moving average. It has been reported that Endowments like Harvard and Yale use the 200 Day Moving Average in modeling their portfolios.
The below chart shows the current 200 day simple moving average condition on over 50 most actively traded ETF’s.
| Security Name | Trend3 | Ticker |
| Barclays High Yield Bond | Stay Long | JNK |
| BRIC IShares | Stay Long | BKF |
| Coal Power Shares | Stay Short | PKOL |
| DB Commodity Index | Stay Short | DBC |
| Diamond Trust DOW | New Long | DIA |
| Energy Select SPDR | Stay Short | XLE |
| Internet Holders | Stay Long | HHH |
| IPath India Index | Stay Long | INP |
| IShare Russell 2000 | Stay Short | IWM |
| IShares 25 Index | Stay Short | FXI |
| IShares Australia | Stay Long | EWA |
| IShares Basic Materials | Stay Long | IYM |
| IShares DJ Real Estate | Stay Long | IYR |
| Ishares DJ Transportation | Stay Long | IYT |
| Ishares Emerging Markets | Stay Long | EEM |
| IShares Financial Sector | Stay Short | IYF |
| IShares Germany | Stay Short | EWG |
| IShares Hong Kong | Stay Long | EWH |
| IShares Latin America | Stay Long | ILF |
| IShares Mexico | New Long | EWW |
| IShares Mid Cap 400 | Stay Long | IJH |
| IShares MSCI EAFE | Stay Short | EFA |
| IShares MSCI Japan | Stay Short | EWJ |
| IShares Pacific ex Japan | Stay Long | EPP |
| IShares S&P 500 Growth | Stay Short | IVW |
| Ishares S&P Small Cap 600 | New Long | IJR |
| IShares Silver | Stay Long | SLV |
| IShares South Africa | Stay Long | EZA |
| IShares South Korea | Stay Long | EWY |
| IShares Taiwan | Stay Long | EWT |
| IShares United Kingdom | New Long | EWU |
| NDX 100 | New Long | QQQQ |
| Oil Service Holders | Stay Short | OIH |
| Pharmaceutical Holders | Stay Short | PPH |
| PowerShares US Dollar Index | New Short | UUP |
| Russia | New Long | RSX |
| RYDEX S&P 500 Equal Weight | New Long | RSP |
| S&P 500 | Stay Short | SPY |
| Semiconductor Holders | Stay Short | SMH |
| SPDR Consumer Descretionary | Stay Long | XLY |
| SPDR Consumer Staples | Stay Long | XLP |
| SPDR Gold Shares | Stay Long | GLD |
| SPDR Healthcare | Stay Short | XLV |
| SPDR Industrial Sector | Stay Long | XLI |
| SPDR International Real Estate | Stay Long | RWX |
| SPDR Materials | Stay Long | XLB |
| SPDR Metal & Mining | Stay Short | XME |
| SPDR Mid Cap | Stay Long | MDY |
| SPDR S&P Homebuilders | Stay Short | XHB |
| SPDR Technology | Stay Short | XLK |
| Steel Market Vector | New Long | SLX |
| US Oil | Stay Short | USO |
| Wisdom Tree Total Dividend | Stay Long | DTD |
You should not trade any system trading plan without proper back testing and analysis of the trading characteristics of the index, stock or ETF you are trading.
These trading signals are provided courtesy of the website you are viewing. This information should not be used without research and advice from a financial professional.
Be aware that this condition can and will change any day in the future.
We monitor the 200 day moving average daily along with a number of other system trading plans.
There is No “Holy Grail” in trading systems. Do not use the 200 day SMA or any other system trading system without proper research on the asset.
For questions on rule based, system trading, contact
mark@seleznovcapitaladvisors.com
www.seleznovcapitaladvisors.com
