Systematically Bullish Signals for Agriculture and Junk Bonds

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

Financial stock sector ETF (XLF) absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,873.91, up 1.53%) absolute price gapped higher on the open and climbed further to a high at 3:45 pm ET. Prices eased only slightly lower into the still-strong close. SPX closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and above all previous highs.

NYSE total volume rose 9% to a level 11% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose to 578 from 101 on 3/3/14. These levels compare to peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.

Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 Index remain weak relative to the price index itself. Both momentum oscillators failed to rise above their highs of 2013 as the S&P 500 price rose to a higher closing price high on 3/4/14. Previously, both fell to their lowest levels in more than 14 months on 2/3/14.

The minor trend of the stock market has been up since 2/3/14, but momentum divergences, generally low trading volume on up days, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The Averages have been diverging since 12/31/13, however, suggesting that all the parts of the stock market may not be in gear and pulling together in the same direction.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose to a 22-month high on 2/18/14 and has remained systematically bullish since 11/26/13. Absolute price of QQQ whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/7/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/3/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend., thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM fell below its lows of the previous 7 months on 2/3/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/7/14 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/20/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/13/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 2/11/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/10/14 when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Support 105.62, 101.17, 100.00, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 109.69, 110.80, 114.77, 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/16/14 when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Support 101.28, 99.18, 98.60, 98.19, 97.66, 91.94, 91.07, 88.12, 87.70, 87.49, 86.59, and 85.80. Resistance: 103.40, 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).Absolute price of JNK has been consolidating in a trading range between 41.95 and 38.21 since 5/8/13.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/10/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Price of TIP has been consolidating in a trading range between 113.54 and 108.63 since 9/5/13.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 2/7/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price 50-day SMA rose above the 200-day SMA on 3/4/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Previously, DBA had been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.04 on 1/22/14.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/28/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Support 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/23/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/13/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below the 200-day SMA. Previously, GDX/GLD fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 2/5/14 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. Support 18.26, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 2/26/14 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, but the trend has turned uncertain since 7/30/13.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price broke down below the lows of the previous 3 months on 3/3/14, suggesting a medium-term downtrend. Longer term, JJC appears to have entered into a neutral trading range since making a low on 6/24/13. JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
11.41% , MBI , MBIA
6.70% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
5.48% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
1.32% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
4.94% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.90% , SSO , Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
3.03% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
4.84% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
3.43% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
2.73% , CVG , CONVERGYS
2.64% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.77% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.47% , IVV , S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
3.90% , INTU , INTUIT
5.42% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
2.46% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
2.52% , IWM , SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
4.02% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
1.61% , IVW , Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
2.56% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
3.79% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
3.21% , QLGC , QLOGIC
4.13% , MDP , MEREDITH
3.47% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.42% , GLW , CORNING
3.52% , PIN , India PS, PIN
2.72% , FHN , First Horizon National
2.04% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
4.14% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
2.93% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
2.82% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
2.71% , EMC , EMC
2.77% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-17.28% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-0.93% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-1.78% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.99% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-2.05% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-2.18% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-0.08% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-1.16% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-1.82% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-0.49% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-0.31% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-2.62% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.13% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-0.27% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-0.29% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
-0.08% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-0.27% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-0.12% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
-0.18% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.94% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
4.16% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
4.09% , Russia MV, RSX
3.52% , India PS, PIN
3.47% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
3.36% , Italy Index, EWI
3.06% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
2.95% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.86% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
2.85% , South Africa Index, EZA
2.77% , Microcap Russell, IWC
2.72% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.64% , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.56% , Japan Index, EWJ
2.54% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.52% , Spain Index, EWP
2.52% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
2.50% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
2.49% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.46% , Sweden Index, EWD
2.38% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
2.38% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.36% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.31% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
2.25% , Germany Index, EWG
2.23% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
2.22% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.22% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
2.08% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
2.06% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
2.05% , France Index, EWQ
2.04% , European VIPERs, VGK
2.04% , Financial SPDR, XLF
2.03% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.98% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.98% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.98% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.97% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.95% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.91% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.90% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.90% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.90% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.88% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.85% , Water Resources, PHO
1.85% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.79% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.77% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.77% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.75% , Global 100, IOO
1.71% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.70% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.67% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.66% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.65% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.65% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.64% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.63% , Austria Index, EWO
1.62% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.61% , Switzerland Index, EWL
1.61% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.60% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.58% , Networking, IGN
1.58% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.57% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.56% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.55% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.55% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.55% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.54% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.53% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.53% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.52% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.52% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.51% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.50% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.50% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.50% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.50% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.49% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.49% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.47% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.47% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.47% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.46% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.45% , Australia Index, EWA
1.45% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.44% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.44% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.44% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.44% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.43% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.42% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.41% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.39% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.37% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.35% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.34% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
1.33% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.31% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.27% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.25% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.24% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.23% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
1.21% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.21% , Dividend International, PID
1.20% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.19% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.14% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.12% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.12% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.12% , Singapore Index, EWS
1.09% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.05% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.97% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.92% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.87% , Energy Global, IXC
0.87% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.83% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.72% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.66% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.50% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.41% , Canada Index, EWC
0.36% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.24% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.21% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.08% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.12% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.14% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.36% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.37% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.38% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.54% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.64% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.77% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.20% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.21% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.23% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.24% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.47% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.50% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1,876.23, high of 3/4/2014

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1834.44, low of 3/3/2014
1823.50, 50-day SMA
1815.52, low of 1/13/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1729.16, 200-day SMA
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009