Consumer Discretionary Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/17/10, thereby turning neutral, even though it remains well above its 200-day SMA.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) absolute price is bearish, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) is bearish, below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Gold August futures contract price rose to challenge its all-time high at 1254.5 set on 6/8/10. The main trend remains bullish.

Copper broke a 7 day uptrend on 6/17/10. On 6/7/10, Copper broke down to a new 7-month low of 2.72, indicating a significant downtrend. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about prospects for the world economy.

The U.S. dollar fell further below 3-week lows on 6/17/10, confirming the short-term sell signal on 6/14/10.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.50% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
9.04% , MTB , M&T BANK
0.65% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
3.82% , NVDA , NVIDIA
0.44% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
3.34% , KR , KROGER
0.62% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
2.73% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
6.09% , SVU , SUPERVALU
4.47% , AET , AETNA
1.46% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
0.72% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
2.62% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
2.32% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
2.10% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
1.30% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.61% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
1.60% , AYE , ALLEGHENY ENERGY
0.66% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
0.94% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
2.35% , CSX , CSX
1.38% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.17% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
0.15% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
1.74% , SWY , SAFEWAY
1.29% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
1.09% , AVP , AVON
1.26% , PGN , PROGRESS ENERGY
1.00% , TYC , TYCO INTL
1.57% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
2.45% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
0.17% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
0.90% , XLP , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.97% , FAST , Fastenal Company
0.44% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
0.63% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.83% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
1.27% , WAT , WATERS
1.37% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
0.74% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.58% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-2.41% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-2.70% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-2.38% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.71% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-2.86% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-0.38% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-2.92% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-2.21% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-2.09% , SWK , STANLEY WORKS
-3.13% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-1.17% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.12% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
-0.70% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-0.30% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-2.67% , X , US STEEL CORP
-1.91% , BBT , BB&T
-0.96% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.29% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-2.02% , AA , ALCOA
-0.21% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-3.02% , KBH , KB HOME
-0.52% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.81% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-0.25% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-2.00% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.58% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-0.55% , XLB , Materials SPDR, XLB
-3.66% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
-1.26% , TIF , TIFFANY
-0.86% , LM , LEGG MASON
-0.73% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-0.28% , PWJ , Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
-2.24% , LOW , LOWES
-1.91% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-1.98% , FO , FORTUNE BRANDS
-1.56% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-3.93% , MAS , MASCO
-2.39% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-0.83% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/17/10, thereby turning neutral, even though it remains well above its 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLY has remained above its 200-day SMA consistently since 2/23/09. Support 30.34. Resistance 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) remains neutral, according to the 50/200 trend-following moving average system. Absolute price of XLI rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/10/10 and has continued to trend higher. Support 27.40. Resistance 33.12, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK rose further above its rising 200-day SMA. Support 20.64. Resistance 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) has performed about in-line with the broader market for the past 7-months and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLP rose further above its rising 200-day SMA. Support 25.78 and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) moved above 4-month highs and its 200-day SMA on 6/16/10. The RS Ratio remains neutral because the 50-day is still below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLU rose above 50- and 200-day SMAs on 6/15/10, although the 50 remains below the 200 SMA. Support 27.44, 25.76. Resistance 30.59, 30.91, 31.64 and 32.08.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of XLV firmed up since breaking down below 6-month lows on 5/25/10. Still, price is technically bearish because price is below both SMAs and the 50 is below the 200 SMA. Support 27.96. Resistance 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/15/10 and so turned neutral. Absolute price of XLE consolidated losses and remains below 50- and 200-day SMAs. Support 50.15 Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) has underperformed since 10/14/09. Absolute price of XLF peaked on 4/15/10. Both remain neutral. Support 13.70 and 13.51. Resistance 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 14-month lows on 6/7/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB broke a 7-day uptrend on 6/17/10 and remains neutral. Support 28.55. Resistance 31.33, 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned neutral. Absolute price of EEM is bearish, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) is bearish, below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of EFA fell below 10-month lows on 5/25/10 and remains bearish.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio moved further above 50- and 200-day SMAs on 6/15/10 and remains bullish. The RS Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 6/4/10, giving a major bullish signal.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/15/10, turning bullish again. Absolute price of the NASDAQ rose further above its 200 SMA on 6/15/10 and remains neutral.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of IWD rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/15/10 and is now neutral.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) rose above 3-month highs on 6/7/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of IWF rose above its 200-day SMA on 6/15/10 and is now neutral.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose above 7-year highs on 6/15/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 30 years on 6/15/10 and remains bearish. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains neutral. Absolute price of IWM closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 6/10/10 and so turned bullish. Absolute price of MDY closed above its 200 SMA on 6/10/10 and remains neutral.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose up above 4-week highs on 6/16/10, thereby confirming a short-term uptrend. Ascending Triangle bottom allows an objective above 80. Support 69.51, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 77.74, 78.81, 81.29, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price rose to challenge its all-time high at 1254.5 set on 6/8/10. The main trend remains bullish. Support 1196.9, 1168.0, 1156.2, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: none.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) remains technically bearish, with the Ratio below both SMAs and the 50 below the 200 SMA.

Silver/Gold Ratio turned bearish on 5/17/10 when it crossed below both 50- and 200-day SMAs, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Copper nearest futures price broke a 7 day uptrend on 6/17/10. On 6/7/10, Copper broke down to a new 7-month low of 2.72, indicating a significant downtrend. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about prospects for the world economy. Support 2.72. Resistance 3.187, 3.2675, 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price has lost upside momentum since setting a 14-month high at 126.05 on 5/2510, which reflected a flight to safety, a flight that may have landed weeks ago. Support 121.06, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 126.05, 126.15, and 130.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been moving with the stock market and remains neutral.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 6-month lows on 5/20/10 but still remains neutral for the intermediate-term trend. This implies that investors are choosing somewhat less inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP remains bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell further below 3-week lows on 6/17/10, again confirming the short-term sell signal on 6/14/10. Support 85.325, 83.07, 81.74, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 37.0% Bulls versus 32.6% Bears as of 6/16/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1.14, down from 1.21 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index fell to the mid 20s since peaking at 48.20 on 5/21/10. A falling VIX suggests decreasing bearish sentiment. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index fell to the mid 20s since peaking at 48.89 on 5/21/10. A falling VXN suggests decreasing bearish sentiment. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to .059 on 5/7/10, a low level that indicates bearish sentiment. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.96 on 5/20/10, its highest level of the year. A high level indicates bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX) broke out above resistance to its highest level in nearly 4 weeks and closed above its 200-day SMA on 6/15/10. The recent Double Bottom near 1040 allows an upside projection above 1160. Over the past 3 weeks, SPX reached down into deeply oversold territory and previous support, testing and holding year 2010 extreme intraday lows around 1040 several times. I expected an oversold rally, and it appears to have begun. Support 1040.78, 1029.38, 1019.95, 1012.42, and 1008.55. Resistance 1130.29, 1151.41, 1173.57, 1181.49, 1219.80, 1220.03, and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1181.49, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2010 range
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1151.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1130.29, Gann 50.0% of 2010 range

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1040.78, low of 5/25/2010
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
1012.42, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

1.38% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.30% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.26% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.25% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.90% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.90% Germany Index, EWG
0.81% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.79% Spain Index, EWP
0.75% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.74% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.74% European VIPERs, VGK
0.73% South Africa Index, EZA
0.73% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.72% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.71% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.66% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.64% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.63% India PS, PIN
0.63% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.60% Sweden Index, EWD
0.59% Belgium Index, EWK
0.55% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.55% France Index, EWQ
0.48% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.47% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.45% Italy Index, EWI
0.45% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.42% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.42% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.37% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.37% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.36% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.36% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.32% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.32% EAFE Index, EFA
0.32% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.31% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.31% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.30% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.26% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.25% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.25% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.24% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.24% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.21% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.20% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.20% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.20% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.19% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.19% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.18% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.17% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.17% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.16% Global 100, IOO
0.16% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.15% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.15% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.15% Networking, IGN
0.14% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.14% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.13% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.13% Energy DJ, IYE
0.12% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
0.12% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.12% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.12% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.11% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.11% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.10% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.10% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.10% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.09% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.09% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.08% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.07% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.06% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.05% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.04% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.04% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.02% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.02% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.00% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.00% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.00% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.00% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.00% Canada Index, EWC
0.00% Austria Index, EWO
0.00% Energy Global, IXC
-0.02% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.03% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.04% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.05% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.05% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.06% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.07% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.09% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.10% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.11% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.11% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.12% Water Resources, PHO
-0.12% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.14% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.15% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.15% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.17% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.20% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.21% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.22% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.23% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.24% Australia Index, EWA
-0.28% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.33% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.34% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.35% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.36% Dividend International, PID
-0.37% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.38% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.40% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.43% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.48% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.48% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.50% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.50% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.52% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.52% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.55% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.61% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.68% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.96% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.99% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.01% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.08% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.11% Russia MV, RSX
-1.17% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.38% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB