Health Care stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA and fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks, signaling a downside correction.
Industrial (XLI) stock sector price rose above the highs of the previous 6 months intraday but reversed to close lower, possibly indicating overbought exhaustion.
Consumer Staples stock sector Relative Strength Ratio Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 20 weeks.
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) confirmed a downside correction. TLT fell below the lows of the previous 10 weeks.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) confirmed a downside correction. UUP fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks and fell below its 50-day SMA.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks and rose above its 50-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,316.00) rose 0.05% on Monday to its highest closing price in 5 months, again confirming a medium-term rally. SPX appears overbought and overdue for a correction, however. Stocks may be vulnerable to a downside shakeout in days ahead.
Bearish technical divergences support a skeptical attitude toward a further stock price advance: SPX still demonstrates relatively low short-term upside momentum; volume trends are bearish, rising on declines and falling on rallies; and the net number of new highs (New Highs minus New Lows) is lower now than in October and December despite the rise in the price indexes.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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AAII Sentiment: There were 47% Bulls and 24% Bears last week. That was a moderate downward adjustment in mood from the previous week’s reading, which was 1.3 standard deviations more optimistic than the 20-year average.
VIX Fear Index broke down below the lows of the previous 5-months on 1/20/12, hitting 18.16 intraday. That is down from recent peaks of 30.91 on 12/8/11, 37.83 on 11/1/11, 46.88 on 10/4/11, and 48.00 on 8/8/11. This drop indicates a shift away from fear and toward confidence, which, according to Humphrey Bancroft Neill’s Art of Contrary Thinking, may be bearish. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1376.55, Fibonacci 100.0% projection 10/11 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1349.31, Fibonacci 87.5% projection 10/11 range
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1329.92, Fibonacci 78.6% projection 10/11 range
1322.28, high of 1/23/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1277.58, low of 1/13/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.33, 200-day SMA
1257.46, low of 12/30/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1255.22, high of 12/22/2011
1248.64, low of 12/29/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1231.04, high of 12/16/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1224.57, high of 12/19/11
1215.20, low of 12/16/11
1209.47, low of 12/14/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/11
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) confirmed a downside correction. TLT fell below the lows of the previous 10 weeks on 1/23/11 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/19/12. TLT remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend for the longer term. Support 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 121.64, 121.76, 124.02 and 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) confirmed a downside correction. IEF fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 1/23/11 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12. IEF remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11, suggesting a persistently bullish major trend. Support 103.29, 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.92, 106.04, and 106.66.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/18/12 but remains below its falling 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/19/12 but remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) confirmed a downside correction. UUP fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks and fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/23/11. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.97, 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.46, 22.85, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 1/23/12. DBA remains bearishly below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) has been correcting and consolidating over the past 12 trading days. USO broke out above the highs of the previous 7 months on 1/4/12, thereby confirming a major uptrend. Support 37.64, 35.73, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.96, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 5 weeks and rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/23/12. GLD remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 159.68, 158.01, 156.19, 154.55, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 165.53, 170.80, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 3 years on 1/20/12, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. GDX/GLD remains bearishly below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 1/23/12 and rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12. SLV remains bearishly below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 28.63, 27.83, 25.65, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.53, 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/20/12 but remains bearishly below its falling 200-day SMA. SLV/GLD fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 12/28/11, confirming a long-term bearish trend. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) rose above the highs of the previous 4 months on 1/19/12 and rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/10/12. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.18% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
0.72% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
0.15% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
0.41% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.25% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
1.77% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
2.83% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
1.76% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
0.71% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
0.75% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
1.00% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
2.61% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
0.42% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.24% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
0.84% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.03% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
1.04% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
0.44% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
0.40% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
2.55% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
1.56% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
0.19% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
2.00% , MDP , MEREDITH
1.67% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
2.76% , BBY , BEST BUY
0.37% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
1.89% , BIG , BIG LOTS
1.25% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.16% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
0.87% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
0.52% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
1.81% , AGN , ALLERGAN
0.86% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.47% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-3.53% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-0.49% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-0.66% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-3.79% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-3.17% , IP , INTL PAPER
-4.38% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-3.15% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-0.42% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.34% , IGV , Software, IGV
-1.68% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
-0.34% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
-3.29% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-1.75% , ASH , ASHLAND
-2.10% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-0.59% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-1.12% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-6.27% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-2.66% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-0.25% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.88% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
-2.82% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-0.92% , AES , AES
-0.74% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-2.29% , KEY , KEYCORP
-1.46% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
-1.86% , PG , PROCTER & GAMBLE
-1.18% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-1.66% , ALTR , ALTERA
-0.85% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-2.62% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-0.93% , COH , COACH
-0.57% , CSX , CSX
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.18% Austria Index, EWO
1.77% Canada Index, EWC
1.61% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.60% Italy Index, EWI
1.37% South Korea Index, EWY
1.36% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.28% Russia MV, RSX
1.25% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.19% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.17% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.17% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.15% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.06% France Index, EWQ
1.02% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.97% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.95% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.92% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.88% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.86% Energy Global, IXC
0.86% Germany Index, EWG
0.85% Sweden Index, EWD
0.84% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.80% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.76% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.75% Energy DJ, IYE
0.72% Belgium Index, EWK
0.71% European VIPERs, VGK
0.71% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.69% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.68% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.67% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.67% Singapore Index, EWS
0.64% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.63% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.62% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.60% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.59% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.54% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.53% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.52% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.49% Spain Index, EWP
0.48% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.48% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.48% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.43% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.42% Japan Index, EWJ
0.42% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.41% China 25 iS, FXI
0.41% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.40% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.40% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.39% EAFE Index, EFA
0.38% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.37% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.35% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.35% Australia Index, EWA
0.35% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.34% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.34% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.34% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.32% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.32% Dividend International, PID
0.32% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.32% India PS, PIN
0.31% Global 100, IOO
0.31% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.29% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.26% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.25% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.24% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.23% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.21% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.21% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.19% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.17% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.17% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.16% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.15% South Africa Index, EZA
0.14% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.12% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.11% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.10% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.09% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.08% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.08% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.06% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.05% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.05% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.05% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.04% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.03% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.03% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.03% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.03% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.02% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.04% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.05% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.05% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.05% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.05% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.06% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.07% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.07% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.08% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.08% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.09% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.10% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.11% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.11% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.11% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.12% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.13% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.13% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.15% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.15% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.16% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.17% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.17% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.20% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.21% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.22% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.23% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.25% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.25% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.27% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.28% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.32% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.33% Water Resources, PHO
-0.43% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.45% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.56% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.63% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.69% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.72% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.78% Networking, IGN
-0.99% Biotech SPDR, XBI
