April 7th 2010
This week has been playing out as expected with prices grinding their way higher and lots of sharp intraday sell offs and rallies which is indicative of a market getting toppy.
Seems like the masses feel as though they are getting left behind which is why we are starting to see the panic buying in the market (new money buying at these lofty overbought prices).
Each time there is a new intraday or daily high on the major indexes there is a renewed bullishness created as breakout traders and novice traders buy into the market hoping for the next surge in price. It is these volume surges of new money entering the market which the big guys (smart money) are selling into. You can see it clear as day light on the intraday charts as new money gets sucked into the market new high and then 2 minutes later larger waves of selling hit the bids. I did explain and show a chart of how this looks to members of the FuturesTradingSignals.com today.
On to the charts….
GLD ETF Trading – Gold Exchange Trading Fund
Today we had a breakout and I expect to see a pullback which is normal when prices gap up and breakout of a pattern. An entry point would be considered on a pullback if the proper criteria are met.
. SLV ETF Trading – Exchange Traded Fund
Silver has always been much more volatile than gold which is why the pullback early this year was so strong and why the recent rally has also covered so much ground. As you can see silver has broke out above resistance but is now looking overbought. A pullback in precious metals is expected, or a pause at least.
. USO Crude Oil Fund
Oil has made a nice move higher the past week but I feel it will pullback also in the coming days for a breather. There are a couple sizable gaps to fill all the way back down to $40.50.
. UNG Natural Gas Fund
This natural gas chart looks very interesting. In the chart I am comparing the 2009 low to today’s price action.
From looking at the chart, natural gas is way oversold and in dire need of a relief rally. As you can see the sharp rallies which occurred just before both the 2009 and the current possible bottom look identical. This type of price action is very common to see.
Let me explain: When an investment is this over sold, meaning it has sold lower for weeks if not months, then there is a large growing number of traders looking to pick a bottom. Once these traders see prices start to move higher they all jump in thinking its “The Bottom”. Some times it is but more times than not it’s just a suckers rally.
General rule is, if everyone can see it, then its most likely not going to happen.. this is also part of the reason the major indexes keep going up. It looks like a great short and a tone of traders are in cash waiting to take advantage of the drop. But the market will keep pushing higher until fear its not going to pullback. That’s when the new money buys back in fueling the GRIND higher.
Anyways, so after all the bottom pickers jump on the train and there are not any more buyers and the price tends to drift lower scaring these traders back out of the position. Eventually a new low is made and everyone is shaken out of the investment. The crazy part is that just as they get out, the price usually turns around and does exactly what they new was going to happen –Go Up.
Most traders have the direction correct, it’s just their timing is off. My general rule is when I see something I wait another bar, sometimes I keep saying that to my self after each new bar until I am confident in the predicted move or price I can get into the position at.
. Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, the bull market continues to grind its way higher. Unfortunately we cannot do much until there is some type of correction because buying way up here after a 2 month rally is outside of my comfort zone.
I foresee a 3-5% correction starting any day now so I am keeping my gunpowder dry.
Disclosure: I currently do not own these funds