Technology stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7-months on 9/10/10. XLK/SPY is bearish, below both 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 below the 200.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) turned bearish on 9/10/10 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. The ratio is below both SMAs. IWM/SPY had been bullish (trending upward) from 4/8/99 to 5/17/10.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract rose above 3-week highs on 9/10/10, indicating a minor bounce. Longer term, a downside correction started after the 87.15 peak on 5/3/10.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,109.55) rose 5.37 points or 0.49% on 9/10/10 to its highest level in 4 weeks. Volume remains relatively low on rallies, however, suggesting a lack of confidence. The 8-day rise in the SPX may be a normal minor bounce within a wider trading range. Absolute price of SPX remains neutral, above the 50-day SMA, below the 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. For more than 2 months, the stock market has been consolidating losses in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/10. Further consolidation still seems likely in days ahead.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.37% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
5.85% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
4.13% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
3.69% , VIA.B , VIACOM STK B
2.78% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
2.93% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
2.11% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
0.31% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
3.17% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
2.97% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
1.38% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
2.96% , ORCL , ORACLE
0.32% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.94% , SPLS , STAPLES
2.98% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
2.34% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
2.45% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
2.68% , RTN , RAYTHEON
3.58% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
2.42% , UIS , UNISYS
1.53% , CEPH , Cephalon Inc
2.40% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
2.73% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
2.94% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
0.85% , PTE , Telecommunications & Wireless, PTE
0.77% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
2.80% , TER , TERADYNE
2.73% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
2.87% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
0.83% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
0.25% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
2.37% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
2.65% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
1.20% , Q , QWEST COMMUNICAT
1.73% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
2.99% , CBS , CBS CORP.
1.28% , ZEUS , Olympic Steell, ZEUS
0.84% , PPH , Pharmaceutical H, PPH
0.46% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
0.77% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.35% , PCG , PG&E
-4.10% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
-6.36% , NSM , NATL SEMICONDUCT
-3.05% , ADI , ANALOG DEVICES
-2.99% , NOVL , NOVELL
-2.58% , DELL , DELL
-3.61% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-3.54% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-3.44% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-4.21% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-1.01% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
-1.48% , D , DOMINION RSCS
-1.36% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-0.42% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
-1.72% , MOLX , MOLEX
-1.43% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-0.86% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-4.26% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-2.25% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
-1.48% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
-0.84% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-2.18% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-2.00% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-0.81% , ECL , ECOLAB
-0.46% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-1.16% , INTU , INTUIT
-0.53% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-1.39% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-0.52% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
-0.50% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
-1.03% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
-0.75% , MOT , MOTOROLA
-0.85% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-1.17% , QCOM , QUALCOMM
-0.72% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-1.22% , SMH , Semiconductor H, SMH
-0.42% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.91% , MET , METLIFE
-0.59% , TXN , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
-0.79% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to another new 2-month high on 9/3/10 and remains bullish. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 32.41, 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 9/8/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA. Support 27.67, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 31.15, 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.

Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 12-month high on 8/31/10 and remains bullish, with the ratio above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200. Absolute price of XLU rose to another new 8-month high on 9/3/10 and remains bullish. Support 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.74 and 32.08.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose further above 7-month highs on 9/8/10. Technically, the Ratio remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA–although the SMAs appear to be converging toward a possible bullish crossover in days ahead. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 32.93, 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 8/24/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Absolute price of XLP remains neutral, with the 50-day below the 200-day SMA. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.46, 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7-months on 9/10/10. XLK/SPY is bearish, below both 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 below the 200. Absolute price of XLK remains neutral, above the 50-day SMA but with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.

Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 27.49. Resistance 29.38, 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been mostly bearish since peaking on 7/1/08. Absolute price of XLE turned mostly bearish after peaking at 62.30 on 4/26/10. Support 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.

Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month low on 8/30/10 and remains bearish—despite an oversold bounce off the low of 8/25/10. Absolute price of XLF turned mostly bearish after peaking at 17.12 on 4/15/10. The price 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 10-month high on 9/1/10, again confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM turned bullish on 9/910 when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 6-month lows on 8/13/10, thereby confirming a significant correction to the downside.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) rose further above 5-week highs on 9/3/10 and remains bullish. Longer term, RSP/SPY has been bullish (trending upward) since 11/19/08. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be trending lower again in recent weeks, since 8/3/10. Big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) turned bearish on 9/10/10 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. The ratio is below both SMAs. IWM/SPY had been bullish (trending upward) from 4/8/99 to 5/17/10.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose further above 5-week highs on 9/3/10 and remains bullish. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99. Absolute price remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract rose above 3-week highs on 9/10/10, indicating a minor bounce. Longer term, a downside correction started after the 87.15 peak on 5/3/10. Watch critical support around 70.76 and 70.35. Support 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 77.03, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract fell below 3-day lows on 9/10/10, possibly signaling a minor pullback. Gold has been in a significant uptrend since making a low at 1155.6 on 7/28/10. Support 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1120.9, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9, and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8 and 1267.1.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.

Silver/Gold Ratio has been mostly neutral, consolidating losses since making a low on 2/8/10. Longer term, Silver has underperformed Gold since 4/19/06.

Copper nearest futures contract price fell below 4-day lows on 9/9/10, possibly signaling a minor pullback. Copper rose above 4-month highs on 9/3/10, again confirming an intermediate-term Secondary Uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.68, 3.795, 4.0825, and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below 4-week lows on 9/10/10, confirming a minor downside correction for the short term. The Bond rose to its highest level in 19-months on 8/25/10, again confirming that the major trend remained bullish. Support 129.22, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has recovered slightly since falling below 3-month lows on 8/26/10. The Ratio has been heading lower (underperforming) most of the time since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and JNK outperforming.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been RELATIVELY bearish most of the time since peaking on 1/8/10. This implies that investors have been choosing less inflation protection.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price appears somewhat bearish short term. The Secondary, intermediate-term trend appears probably bearish. Long term, USD may be in a secular downtrend and merely consolidating losses since bottoming at 70.805 in March 2008. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90, 74.27, and 70.805. Resistance 83.64, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 33.3% Bulls versus 32.2% Bears as of 9/8/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.03, up from 0.78 the previous week, which was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

The Dow Theory suggests a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,109.55) rose 5.37 points or 0.49% on 9/10/10 to its highest level in 4 weeks. Volume remains relatively low on rallies, however, suggesting a lack of confidence. The 8-day rise in the SPX may be a normal minor bounce within a wider trading range. Absolute price of SPX remains neutral, above the 50-day SMA, below the 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. For more than 2 months, the stock market has been consolidating losses in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/10. Further consolidation still seems likely in days ahead.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
1110.88, high of 9/10/2010

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.68% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.52% South Africa Index, EZA
1.40% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.14% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.12% Energy DJ, IYE
1.11% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.05% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.04% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.02% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.00% Sweden Index, EWD
0.98% Mexico Index, EWW
0.97% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.90% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.85% South Korea Index, EWY
0.84% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.83% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.79% Energy Global, IXC
0.73% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.72% Japan Index, EWJ
0.71% Dividend International, PID
0.71% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.70% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.66% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.65% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.64% India PS, PIN
0.64% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.63% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.60% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.60% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.58% France Index, EWQ
0.57% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.56% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.54% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.54% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.53% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.52% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.52% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.52% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.51% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.51% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.51% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.51% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.50% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.50% Germany Index, EWG
0.50% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.47% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.47% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.47% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.47% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.46% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.46% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.45% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.45% Italy Index, EWI
0.44% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.44% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.43% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.43% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.42% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.42% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.41% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.40% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.40% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.39% Singapore Index, EWS
0.38% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.37% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.37% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.35% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.35% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.34% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.34% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.33% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.32% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.32% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.31% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.31% Spain Index, EWP
0.30% EAFE Index, EFA
0.30% Global 100, IOO
0.30% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.30% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.29% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.29% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.27% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.26% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.26% European VIPERs, VGK
0.25% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.25% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.25% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.23% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.22% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.22% Russia MV, RSX
0.20% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.20% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.19% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.19% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.19% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.19% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.18% Canada Index, EWC
0.18% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.17% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.16% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.15% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.14% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.14% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.14% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.13% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.13% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.13% Water Resources, PHO
0.12% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.11% Austria Index, EWO
0.10% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.10% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.10% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.08% Belgium Index, EWK
0.07% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.07% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.05% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.04% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.04% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.04% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.04% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.11% Networking, IGN
-0.17% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.21% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.22% Australia Index, EWA
-0.22% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.29% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.29% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.37% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.42% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.46% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.57% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.12% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.24% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-1.72% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD