Technology stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 16 months on 1/14/13, again confirming its established systematically bearish major trend.
Utilities stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 1/14/13, again confirming its systematically bearish major trend.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,470.68 ) finished nearly unchanged again on Monday, lower by only 1.37 points or 0.09%, resulting in an another indecisive Doji Candlestick. NYSE trading volume fell 17%, confirming hesitation to bid stock prices higher.
The Art of Contrary Thinking calls for questioning popular optimism. Investor sentiment data indicated alarming degrees of optimism and bullish complacency in recent weeks, matching or exceeding extremes in September, 2012, when many stock price indexes hit peaks and reversed to the downside. Elevated levels of optimism are bearish because when the majority is extremely bullish, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1467.94, high of 1/4/13
1464.02, high of 10/18/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1418.27, 50-day SMA
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1392.78, 200-day SMA
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish again on 1/10/13 when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA and a 6-months long downtrend line. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 33.57, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.32, 34.70, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support: 158.39, 157.40, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.14, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish on 12/27/12 when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically neutral on 12/13/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support 28.61, 27.97, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 30.47, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 12/20/12. SLV/GLD turned systematically neutral on 12/14/12 when it fell below its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Long term, JJC has been consolidating losses in Triangle Consolidation chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
12.96% , DELL , DELL
8.91% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
3.43% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
1.69% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
2.39% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
10.25% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
4.89% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
2.89% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
0.93% , IGN , Networking, IGN
2.52% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
4.05% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
1.50% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
2.46% , SNV , SYNOVUS
2.38% , NCR , NCR
2.06% , BIG , BIG LOTS
1.80% , IP , INTL PAPER
0.77% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.79% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
0.17% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.64% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
2.42% , NE , NOBLE
3.60% , COH , COACH
1.05% , FDX , FEDEX
0.20% , IWR , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.15% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
1.93% , XRX , XEROX
1.12% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
1.28% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.78% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
0.46% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
1.10% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
2.57% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
1.46% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.57% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-0.92% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.77% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-2.26% , GOOG , Google
-2.55% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-1.67% , ALTR , ALTERA
-1.95% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-0.94% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-0.60% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-1.14% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-0.64% , XLK , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.60% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-0.20% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.32% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-0.30% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-0.70% , DOV , DOVER
-1.15% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-0.57% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-1.23% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-1.64% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
-1.01% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-0.06% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.89% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-1.94% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-0.61% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-1.43% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-1.43% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-0.94% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-0.25% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.33% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-0.11% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.30% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-0.22% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.15% India PS, PIN
1.93% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.90% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.50% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.28% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.28% Russia MV, RSX
0.93% Networking, IGN
0.77% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.65% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.65% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.62% Sweden Index, EWD
0.61% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.61% Japan Index, EWJ
0.54% China 25 iS, FXI
0.52% Germany Index, EWG
0.51% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.50% Mexico Index, EWW
0.50% France Index, EWQ
0.48% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.44% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.43% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.42% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.40% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.40% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.39% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.38% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.36% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.35% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.31% Dividend International, PID
0.31% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.30% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.28% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.27% Australia Index, EWA
0.27% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.25% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.25% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.24% Canada Index, EWC
0.24% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.23% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.22% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.21% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.21% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.20% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.19% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.19% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.19% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.18% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.18% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.17% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.17% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.15% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.15% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.15% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.13% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.13% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.13% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.13% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.12% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.12% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.12% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.12% South Africa Index, EZA
0.11% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.10% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.10% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.10% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.10% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.09% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.09% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.08% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.06% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.05% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.05% Global 100, IOO
0.03% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.03% Spain Index, EWP
0.03% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.02% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.01% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.01% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.00% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.00% Energy Global, IXC
0.00% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.00% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.02% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.03% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.04% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.06% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.06% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.06% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.06% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.06% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.07% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.07% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.07% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.07% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.08% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.09% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.09% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.09% Water Resources, PHO
-0.11% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.11% Austria Index, EWO
-0.11% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.12% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.12% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.13% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.13% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.14% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.14% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.15% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.15% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.15% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.16% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.20% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.20% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.20% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.20% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.20% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.20% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.22% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.25% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.26% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.27% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.27% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.28% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.29% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.30% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.40% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.45% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.47% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.48% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.57% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.62% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.64% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.65% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.66% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.66% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.77% Italy Index, EWI
-0.77% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.82% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.92% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
