Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell further below 17-month lows and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLF turned bearish when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. XLF price was already below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA was below the 200-day SMA.

Technology stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose sharply above 10-month highs. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs. Bullish.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio leaped up above 9-year highs. The 50-day SMA remains moderately below the 200-day SMA but is quickly closing the gap.

Crude Oil price fell below 5-day lows, which is a minor sign of short-term weakness.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below 7-week lows, thereby giving a bearish signal for the Secondary, intermediate-term trend.

U.S. Treasury Bond price fell below 3-day week lows, again confirming a change in the short-term trend to the downside

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,176.19) overcame morning profit taking to close higher by 2.38 points or 0.20%. Resilience, the ability to quickly spring back, is a bullish sign. We continue to assume that the bulls are in control until proved otherwise.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.74% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
11.19% , GOOG , Google
3.00% , RAI , Reynolds American
3.31% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
5.13% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
5.86% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
5.62% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
1.69% , XLK , Technology SPDR, XLK
4.11% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
3.07% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
4.92% , MON , MONSANTO
2.15% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
3.02% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
3.35% , WFMI , Whole Foods Market Inc
2.41% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
1.38% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
1.84% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
0.19% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
1.03% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
0.35% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
1.15% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
0.96% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
2.98% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
1.37% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
2.86% , BBY , BEST BUY
4.22% , QLD , Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
2.03% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
1.54% , SEE , SEALED AIR
2.56% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
1.10% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.56% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
1.61% , NBR , NABORS
1.76% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.20% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
0.34% , VO , MidCap VIPERs, VO
0.49% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
2.12% , QQQQ.O , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.69% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
2.05% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.31% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-8.80% , GCI , GANNETT
-5.01% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
-7.60% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-1.36% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-1.96% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-2.00% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-4.05% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-3.39% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-1.93% , HAS , HASBRO
-2.47% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-2.68% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-0.85% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.91% , MAS , MASCO
-1.00% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.33% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
-1.08% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-1.44% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-1.13% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-0.57% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-4.19% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.81% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
-0.98% , NUE , NUCOR
-0.36% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-4.61% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
-1.06% , MET , METLIFE
-0.07% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-4.69% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-0.38% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-1.30% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-1.05% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.24% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.52% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
-0.28% , PWY , Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY
-0.27% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.75% , BA , BOEING
-4.92% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-1.36% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-1.37% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
-3.00% , ZION , ZIONS
-0.76% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to another new 3-month high on 10/8/10 and remains bullish. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Technology (XLK) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose sharply above 10-month highs on 10/15/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLK rose further above 5-month highs on 10/15/10 and is poised to turn bullish: the 50-day SMA is likely to cross above the 200-day SMA within a few days. Support 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above 2-year highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 33.04, 35.00, and 36.16.

Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) crossed back above its rising 50-day SMA on 10/8/10, thereby turning bullish again. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 34.80, 35.47, and 37.56.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 10/14/10 but remains technically neutral. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 but remains technically neutral. On both charts, the 50-day SMAs are below the 200-day SMAs. Price peaked at 62.30 on 4/26/10. Support 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) remains neutral, consolidating gains between its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Absolute price rose further above 2-year highs on 10/15/10 and remains bullish. Support 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 3-month lows on 10/13/10 and remains neutral, below the falling 50-day SMA. Absolute price of XLU rose above 10-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 31.27, 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.08.

Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 5-week lows on 10/12/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV remains neutral. Price peaked at 33.16 on 1/20/10. Support 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell further below 17-month lows on 10/15/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLF turned bearish on 10/15/10 when it crossed below its 50-day SMA. XLF price was already below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA was below the 200-day SMA. XLF has been bearish most days after peaking at 17.12 on 4/15/10. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose further above 7-year highs on 10/4/10, again confirming a secular (major) bullish trend. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs to confirm RS.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above 8-month highs on 10/14/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the falling 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 6-month closing price highs on 10/14/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio leaped up above 9-year highs on 10/15/10. The 50-day SMA remains moderately below the 200-day SMA but is quickly closing the gap.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 3-month lows on 9/30/10. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains technically neutral, with the rising 50-day SMA moderately below the rising 200-day SMA.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 9/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below 5-day lows on 10/7/10, which is a minor sign of short-term weakness. Longer term, Oil has been consolidating more or less sideways/neutral in a choppy trading range since topping at 87.15 on 5/3/10. Support 80.30, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 84.43, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price rose above previous all-time highs on 10/14/10. All trends remain bullish. Support 1341.1, 1325.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: none.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below 7-week lows on 10/15/10, thereby giving a bearish signal for the Secondary, intermediate-term trend. The RS Ratio is now between its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA and falling. GDX has been underperforming GLD since 9/22/10.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs on 10/14/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold significantly since 8/20/10.

Copper nearest futures contract price rose further above 2-year highs on 10/14/10, again confirming a major uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.6445, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 4.0825 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below 3-day week lows on 10/15/10, again confirming a change in the short-term trend to the downside, at least. In addition, there could be a chance for a potential double top around recent highs of 135.12 and 135.19. Support 129.05, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 2-month highs on 10/13/10 but remains neutral, with the falling 50-day SMA below the falling 200-day SMA.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above 8-month highs on 10/14/10 and has been rising since 8/24/10. This implies that fixed-income investors have been choosing more inflation protection since 8/24/10.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 10-month lows on 10/14/10, thereby confirming a bearish trend for the short term and intermediate term. Long term, USD may be in a secular downtrend and merely consolidating losses since bottoming at 70.805 in March 2008. Support 76.47, 75.90, 74.27, and 70.805. Resistance 82.335, 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 47.2% Bulls versus 24.7% Bears as of 10/13/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.91, up from 0.78 on 9/1/10. That 0.78 was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. Previously, the ratio had fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.53, and the mean is 1.60.

VIX Fear Index plunged below 5-month lows, breaking 19 on 10/11/10, down from 48 in May. A low and falling VIX suggests increasing bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory suggests a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007. On Friday 9/24/10, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose to a new 4-month closing price high and on Tuesday 9/28/10 the Dow-Jones Transportation Average confirmed by making a new 4-month closing price high. This signals an intermediate-term Secondary uptrend, according to The Dow Theory.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,176.19) overcame morning profit taking to close higher by 2.38 points or 0.20%. Resilience, the ability to quickly spring back, is a bullish sign. We continue to assume that the bulls are in control until proved otherwise.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.12% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
2.05% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.76% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.69% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.24% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.10% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.91% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.84% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.75% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.73% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.70% China 25 iS, FXI
0.54% Networking, IGN
0.54% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.46% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.43% Singapore Index, EWS
0.42% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.42% South Korea Index, EWY
0.39% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.34% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.30% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.29% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.29% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.27% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.26% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.25% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.24% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.24% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.20% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.20% Energy Global, IXC
0.18% Energy DJ, IYE
0.17% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.15% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.13% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.12% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.12% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.12% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.10% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.10% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.08% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.08% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.04% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.02% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.02% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.00% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.00% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.01% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.02% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.03% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.04% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.05% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.05% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.06% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-0.06% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.07% Spain Index, EWP
-0.07% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.10% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.12% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.12% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.12% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.12% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.13% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.14% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.14% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.14% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.14% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.16% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.17% Germany Index, EWG
-0.17% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.17% Water Resources, PHO
-0.19% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.20% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.21% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.21% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.21% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.22% Australia Index, EWA
-0.23% Russia MV, RSX
-0.24% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.25% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-0.25% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.26% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.26% Dividend International, PID
-0.27% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.29% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.30% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.31% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.33% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.34% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.34% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.34% Global 100, IOO
-0.35% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.36% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.37% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.38% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.39% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.42% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.43% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.43% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.47% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.50% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.51% France Index, EWQ
-0.53% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.54% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.56% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.57% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.58% Austria Index, EWO
-0.59% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.62% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.62% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.63% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.64% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.65% Canada Index, EWC
-0.65% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.76% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.77% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.78% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.79% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.84% Italy Index, EWI
-0.84% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.85% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.87% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.89% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.97% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.00% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.05% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.11% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.16% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.22% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.25% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.30% India PS, PIN
-1.42% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.43% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.47% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.71% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.96% Financial Preferred, PGF
-2.23% Financial Services DJ, IYG