Technology (XLK) stock sector absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 7/19/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) remains systematically bearish. XLK/SPY has been trending down since it peaked on 4/10/12.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 7/19/13, when it crossed back down below its own 50-day SMA.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 7/19/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend.
Health Care (XLV) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 7/19/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral).
Energy (XLE) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 7/19/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish).
U.S. stock market price indexes remain in uptrends. On Friday, the S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,692.09) rose 0.16% to a new all-time closing price high. Simple trend following has enjoyed an unusual winning streak.
NYSE total volume fell 5% to a level 5% below its 200-day SMA. Rising volume on a price move confirms the direction (up or down) of that price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind that move, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE both rose again but remain below their May highs, thereby diverging bearishly. In addition, the Net Number of New Highs-Lows remains far below its May high, thereby diverging bearishly.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 7/19/13, when it crossed back down below its own 50-day SMA. QQQ/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 4/10/12.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Longer term, IWM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 4/5/11. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Longer term, MDY/SPY has underperformed slightly since the ratio peaked on 4/5/11. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.38, 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 2 years on 7/5/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a bullish trend. Support 36.88, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been down trending since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 20.53, 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 7/19/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.85% , SNV , SYNOVUS
8.51% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
5.43% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
4.61% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
4.41% , AMGN , AMGEN
5.06% , IR , INGER RAND
2.77% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
1.98% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
2.99% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
7.99% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
3.20% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
1.92% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
2.49% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
2.04% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
3.30% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
3.23% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
1.65% , APA , APACHE
1.54% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
1.86% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
2.20% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
1.84% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
2.44% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
2.16% , GLW , CORNING
0.99% , ECL , ECOLAB
3.12% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
2.65% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
2.28% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
1.24% , EL , Estee Lauder
1.26% , SYK , STRYKER
2.47% , HES , AMERADA HESS
0.81% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
1.13% , MKC , MCCORMICK
0.81% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-11.40% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
-13.15% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-4.52% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-6.79% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-0.85% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-2.61% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-4.22% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-2.50% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-1.70% , XLK , Technology SPDR, XLK
-2.19% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-1.71% , AA , ALCOA
-1.55% , GOOG , Google
-1.30% , VFC , VF
-1.33% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
-2.48% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-0.80% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-0.12% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-1.38% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-0.59% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
-2.13% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.34% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-1.94% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-2.62% , MBI , MBIA
-0.14% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
-1.00% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
-2.34% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-0.40% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-1.19% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-0.80% , D , DOMINION RSCS
-0.62% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.52% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-0.47% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-0.41% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.58% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.49% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.48% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.39% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.38% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.32% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.28% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.02% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.94% , Energy Global, IXC
0.89% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.85% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.82% , Russia MV, RSX
0.80% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.72% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.70% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.69% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.65% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.58% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.55% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.55% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.50% , Canada Index, EWC
0.48% , Italy Index, EWI
0.48% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.46% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.45% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.44% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.40% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.40% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.37% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.35% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.35% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.35% , Water Resources, PHO
0.30% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.30% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.29% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.29% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.29% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.28% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.27% , Germany Index, EWG
0.27% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.26% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.26% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.24% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.24% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.23% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.20% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.19% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.18% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.18% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.16% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.16% , France Index, EWQ
0.16% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.16% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.15% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.15% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.15% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.15% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.14% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.14% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.13% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.13% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.13% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.11% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.11% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.11% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.11% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.10% , Spain Index, EWP
0.09% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.08% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.08% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.08% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.07% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.07% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.06% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.06% , Dividend International, PID
0.06% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.05% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.05% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.05% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.04% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.03% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.03% , Networking, IGN
0.03% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.03% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.02% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.02% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.01% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.00% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.02% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.02% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.02% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.03% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.03% , Global 100, IOO
-0.03% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.06% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.06% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.06% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.07% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.07% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.08% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.08% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.08% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.08% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.09% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.10% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.11% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.11% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.12% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.14% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.16% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.16% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.17% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.21% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.21% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.24% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.26% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.28% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.29% , India PS, PIN
-0.29% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.30% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.31% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.34% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.37% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.41% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.43% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.54% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.56% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.62% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.71% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.75% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.92% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.93% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.03% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.09% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.38% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.60% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.65% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.70% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.90% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.66% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1693.12, high of 7/18/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1639.58, 50-day SMA
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1524.84, 200-day SMA
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
