USDCAD – While our overall outlook nearer term on USDCAD remains higher, a failure to sustain most of its intra day gains after turning sharply off the 1.0851 level has signaled a loss of upside momentum. With that said, we expect further strength possibly to retest the 1.0851 level with an eventual break of there targeting the 1.0867 level, its Nov 01’09 high and next its Sept 28’09 high at 1.0991. Its daily RSI remains supportive of this view as it is trending higher. Conversely, if the shooting star candle (top reversal signal) now seen on the daily chart gets a follow through lower, a retarget of its May 24’10 low at 1.0532 is expected. T 1.0435 level, its May 17’10 comes in as the next support with a break bringing further declines towards its May 18’10 low at 1.0244 and then its May 13’10 low 1.0108. Note that a clean break and hold above the 1.0851 level will confirm a bottom. Overall, with its rally running into a bear pressure at the 1.0851 level, price hesitation to correction could be developing.
Support Comments
1.0532 May 24’10 low
1.0435 17’10 high
1.0244 18’10 low
Resistance Comments
1.0737/43 20’10 highs
1.0779 05’10 low
1.0867 01’09 high
Directional Bias
Nearer Term – Bullish
Short Term – Bearish
Medium Term – Bearish
Performance (%)
Past Week: +2.31%
Past Month: +0.38%
Year To Date: +0.64%
