Apple Computer is the stock market bellwether du jour. APPL stock price reversed to the downside on 3/15/12, after an extended price run up peaking at 600.01, as fans lined up to be the first in their peer group to buy and show off their new iPads. This is interesting to stock market investors on 3 counts: first, resistance at the round number of 600; second, 600 is double the peak near 300 in December 2007; and third, it is a classic example of buying in anticipation then selling on the fact of the hot new iPad. APPL is the high-flying glamour stock of the decade, and it is the most owned stock by hot-money hedge funds. All this makes APPL worth watching as a stock market indicator.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) has been lagging the stock market… Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this underperformance may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) shows good bullish momentum for the short term.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) shows considerable downside momentum for the short term.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned bullish last week. The market recognizes that the Fed, ECB, and other global monetary authorities are willing to print money out of thin air as necessary in order to support the financial system.

The stock market ended an up week on a mixed note, with the S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,404.17) up 0.11%, DJIA down 0.15%, NASDAQ Composite down 0.04%, and more declining than advancing stocks. The A-D Line shows a small divergence since peaking on Tuesday, 3/13/12.

It has been an exceptional year so far, with no downside pullbacks of as much as 3% since 12/19/12, based on SPX close prices. It is extremely unlikely that stocks can continue to go up like this much longer, however, without a significant downside correction. Odds are stocks will experience the usual ups and downs this year. After large price run ups, stocks become more vulnerable to sudden reversals. Therefore, Potential Reward relative to potential Risk appears unattractive for stocks.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.

But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Available by subscription only (click here).
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
6.96% , PWER , POWER ONE
0.73% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
6.91% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
6.41% , UIS , UNISYS
4.83% , NE , NOBLE
1.03% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
4.15% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
1.87% , BLL , BALL
2.83% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
0.60% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
3.19% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
4.55% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
2.85% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
1.07% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
2.16% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
1.30% , WAG , WALGREEN
2.46% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
1.11% , BCR , C R BARD
1.94% , DE , DEERE & CO
3.59% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
2.91% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
0.16% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
2.00% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
2.86% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
1.13% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
1.71% , NBR , NABORS
2.11% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
1.70% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
2.05% , ADSK , AUTODESK
3.40% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
2.34% , EBAY , EBAY
4.18% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
6.06% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.55% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-1.60% , CR , CRANE
-1.42% , XRX , XEROX
-0.51% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-2.51% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-1.37% , SNPS , Synopsys Inc
-3.33% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-1.76% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-1.29% , AMGN , AMGEN
-1.21% , NI , NISOURCE
-1.25% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-1.53% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.88% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-1.43% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-3.02% , F , FORD MOTOR
-1.18% , SO , SOUTHERN
-1.11% , DLX , DELUXE
-2.85% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-1.12% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
-1.11% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-1.52% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
-0.97% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-0.30% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
-0.94% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-1.39% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
-1.47% , KSS , KOHLS
-0.33% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-2.30% , KBH , KB HOME
-1.26% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
-0.77% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-0.94% , BMS , BEMIS
-1.10% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-1.01% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.86% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.70% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.61% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.32% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.31% Energy DJ, IYE
1.23% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.22% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.16% Austria Index, EWO
1.16% Belgium Index, EWK
1.15% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.03% European VIPERs, VGK
1.03% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.03% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.01% Energy Global, IXC
0.99% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.93% France Index, EWQ
0.87% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.75% Spain Index, EWP
0.74% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.73% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.72% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.72% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.71% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.69% EAFE Index, EFA
0.68% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.67% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.67% Canada Index, EWC
0.66% Italy Index, EWI
0.64% Germany Index, EWG
0.60% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.60% Australia Index, EWA
0.57% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.55% Japan Index, EWJ
0.52% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.51% Sweden Index, EWD
0.51% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.48% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.47% Singapore Index, EWS
0.46% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.39% Networking, IGN
0.39% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.39% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.31% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.28% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.27% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.24% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.23% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.21% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.21% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.20% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.20% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.19% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.19% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.17% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.17% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.16% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.16% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.16% Global 100, IOO
0.16% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.16% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.15% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.15% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.15% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.14% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.14% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.13% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.13% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.12% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.11% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.11% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.09% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.09% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.09% South Africa Index, EZA
0.06% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.06% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.01% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.01% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.03% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.04% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.04% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.05% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.06% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.06% Dividend International, PID
-0.08% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.09% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.10% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.10% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.10% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.11% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.11% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.11% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.12% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.12% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.13% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.13% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.13% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.15% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.15% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.15% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.16% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.16% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.17% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.19% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.19% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.19% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.21% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.21% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.22% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.23% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.24% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.24% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.26% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.26% Water Resources, PHO
-0.27% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.27% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.27% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.30% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.33% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.34% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.35% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.36% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.37% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.42% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.42% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.51% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.58% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.59% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.59% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.61% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.63% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.94% Russia MV, RSX
-1.00% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.03% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.47% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.53% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.79% India PS, PIN