The bears may be taking charge–GLOBALLY.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/11/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 9 months on 6/11/13 and remains bearish.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) and Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) both fell below 6-month price lows on 6/11/13 and remain bearish.

U.S. stocks started the day on Tuesday sharply lower but recovered most of that loss before noon. Prices fell again in the afternoon to close below their opening lows. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,626.13) finished down 1.02% and Nasdaq fell 1.06%. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE finished much lower. NYSE Volume rose, up 18% from the previous trading day, suggesting growing selling pressure on stocks.

The bulls appear to have lost control of the recent minor rally attempt, and the bears may be taking charge–GLOBALLY.

The S&P 500 fell 3.6% from 5/21/13 to 6/5/13, based on closing prices. That was the largest down wave since last September-November. It also was the longest in time, lasting 10 trading days. The magnitude and duration of that price decline might be telling us that this time is different from all previous minor price corrections since last November.

Despite months of technical divergences and a clear loss of upside momentum in recent weeks, the great majority of investors remain bullishly complacent. The Bullish Majority assumes (hopes) that the stock market will again find its old bullish resilience, that bullish momentum will again “feed on itself”, and the “Buy-the-Dip” mentality won’t quit until the Fed quits its “highly accommodative monetary policy”.

Following a persistent trend, investors typically overestimate the market’s ability to continue in that same trend direction, while underestimating risks of trend reversal and the natural tendency of all markets to move both up and down, going from overbought to oversold, just as they always have.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market most recently on 5/17/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed at new price highs. On 5/28/13, however, the Industrial Average rose to a higher high without confirmation by the Transportation Average, which made a lower high.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 4/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, QQQ has underperformed SPY since 4/10/12, and that Relative Strength downtrend will probably resume.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/11/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 6-month low on 6/11/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/11/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 7-month low on 6/11/13, confirming its bearish major trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 9 months on 6/11/13. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 6/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new price high intraday on 5/22/13, but that high was rejected by the market.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 6/6/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/6/13. Price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/3/13, when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price has been consolidating losses in a choppy, sideways trend for 4 years, whipsawing around both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/18/13. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.59, 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 130.51. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/11/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/7/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) is systematically bearish. Price has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 4/4/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.37% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
2.78% , TLAB , TELLABS
1.38% , CI , CIGNA
1.98% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.47% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
0.80% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
0.88% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
1.33% , AET , AETNA
2.05% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
1.90% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.19% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.03% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.57% , VFC , VF
1.38% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.39% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1.09% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
0.32% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
1.12% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
0.39% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
0.18% , PFE , PFIZER
0.12% , CVS , CVS
1.22% , SWY , SAFEWAY
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.08% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-4.83% , DLX , DELUXE
-1.22% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.25% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.13% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.14% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-3.97% , AN , AUTONATION
-2.17% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-1.91% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.93% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-3.81% , C , CITIGROUP
-1.02% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-1.63% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-6.07% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.03% , TIF , TIFFANY
-2.92% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-3.91% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-0.72% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-3.34% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-0.88% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.27% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-2.59% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-3.03% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
-2.14% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.18% , IWR , MidCap Russell, IWR
-2.39% , FLR , FLUOR
-1.34% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-2.35% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-2.83% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-1.41% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-2.76% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.96% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
-1.95% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.19% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.03% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.88% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.39% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.25% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.16% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.01% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.19% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.25% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.29% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.40% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.41% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.52% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.57% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.57% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.61% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.61% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.62% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.62% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.62% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.66% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.66% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.69% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.69% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.72% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.77% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.79% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.79% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.86% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.88% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.88% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.88% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.92% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.93% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.93% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.94% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.96% , Global 100, IOO
-0.96% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.96% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.96% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.97% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.97% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.98% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.98% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.99% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.99% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.99% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.99% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.01% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.02% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.03% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.04% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.05% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.05% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.05% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.05% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-1.06% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.06% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.07% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-1.07% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.08% , France Index, EWQ
-1.08% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.08% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.09% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.10% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.11% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.11% , Networking, IGN
-1.11% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.12% , Energy Global, IXC
-1.12% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.13% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-1.13% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.13% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.13% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.14% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.14% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-1.15% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.15% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.15% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-1.17% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.18% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.18% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.18% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.19% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.22% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.23% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-1.23% , Dividend International, PID
-1.26% , Canada Index, EWC
-1.27% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.27% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.28% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.30% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.34% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.36% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.36% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.36% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.39% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.39% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.41% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.43% , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.45% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-1.45% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.48% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.48% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.49% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.50% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.52% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.52% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.53% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.55% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.55% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.56% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.57% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.61% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.63% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.65% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.69% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.72% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.75% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.76% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.82% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.84% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.89% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.90% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.91% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.94% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.95% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.97% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.97% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.99% , Russia MV, RSX
-2.14% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-2.25% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.40% , India PS, PIN
-2.50% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.73% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.73% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.76% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.85% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-6.07% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, intraday high of 5/22/2013
1674.21, intraday high of 5/28/2013
1648.69, intraday high of 6/10/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1609.71, 50-day SMA
1598.23, low of 6/6/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1497.49, 200-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009