I use a model to study the Euro- Yen cross that is very similar to the one I have shown for the S&P 500. It accounts for both a trend component and its limited tendency to mean revert. Needless to say the Euro has been in a downtrend verses the Yen for some time but maybe its coming back to life. Here’s the chart:
The blue bars are bullish and we finally see a couple of them finally appearing. I also like the level of chaos in the time series (the yellow line is below the blue line that defines trendiness). Even though the market is somewhat overbought (purple line) I got a buy signal anyway today.
I would rather wait for oscillator to be oversold but I may not be accommodated.
