Now here is what is really happening.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA, turning systematically bullish again.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA, thereby turning systematically bearish again.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since 12/31/10. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this relative weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months, thereby confirming its major downtrend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 10 months, thereby confirming its major downtrend.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,375.32) fell 4.00 points or 0.29% on Wednesday and broke down below the lows of the previous 2 trading days.
NYSE trading volume rose 15% to confirm the stock price downtrend.
The Fed did not actually do anything or even say much new on Wednesday, and so now the markets wait for the ECB’s Mario Draghi to do “whatever it takes.” The markets may be set up for another disappointment unless the ECB does something significant.
Underlying market conditions suggest that downside risk still may exceed upside potential for the stock market. Choosing safety over risk appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative investors.
For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.
Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Investors Intelligence Sentiment has shifted substantially toward bullish confidence since May. According to the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of stock market newsletter advisors reported on 8/1/12, there were 39.4% Bulls and 27.7% Bears. Advisors consistently have been demonstrating above-average bullish sentiment since 1/4/12.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1391.74, high of 7/30/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1339.08, 50-day SMA
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1320.44, 200-day SMA
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/1/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. TIP/IEF remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA on 6/27/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/1/12, turning systematically bullish again. UUP remains above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has stayed above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, but its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. The 50-200 spread has been narrowing for 5 weeks but still may be weeks away from meeting. Rising food prices could bring trouble for the economy because more consumer spending for food means less consumer spending available for other goods and services.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically neutral on 7/16/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. USO remains far below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day remains far below its 200-day SMA. Support 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.84, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/25/12, thereby turning systematically neutral from bearish: above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with its 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/9/12, turning systematically bearish again. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/1/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. SLV remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 27.98, 28.26, 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 6/28/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/1/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. In addition, JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since 12/31/10. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this relative weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.53% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
6.09% , NCR , NCR
4.72% , HSP , HOSPIRA
6.12% , ALL , ALLSTATE
1.97% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
1.66% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
1.97% , CVG , CONVERGYS
0.47% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
0.86% , DE , DEERE & CO
0.22% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
4.33% , AGN , ALLERGAN
1.16% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
1.84% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
1.57% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
1.54% , SYK , STRYKER
2.49% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
1.40% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
1.46% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
1.54% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
0.35% , GCI , GANNETT
0.44% , DD , DU PONT
0.97% , FLR , FLUOR
1.18% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
1.23% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
1.69% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
1.18% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
0.76% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
0.21% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
3.07% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
1.65% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
0.89% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
0.27% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
0.27% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.68% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-21.66% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-6.06% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-11.11% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-2.42% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.80% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-3.61% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-1.82% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-0.78% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-1.35% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-3.78% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-1.73% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-0.77% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-3.14% , AN , AUTONATION
-5.28% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
-1.35% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-0.69% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.96% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-0.50% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-0.56% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-4.13% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-0.77% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-3.48% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-2.22% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-2.05% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.82% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-1.15% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-2.94% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-3.18% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-1.55% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.50% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-2.73% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-5.12% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.50% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.40% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.61% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.60% India PS, PIN
0.59% Energy Global, IXC
0.55% Energy DJ, IYE
0.54% South Korea Index, EWY
0.49% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.43% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.42% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.38% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.33% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.32% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.31% France Index, EWQ
0.26% China 25 iS, FXI
0.25% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.22% South Africa Index, EZA
0.21% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.21% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.19% European VIPERs, VGK
0.19% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.18% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.17% Belgium Index, EWK
0.17% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.15% Singapore Index, EWS
0.15% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.15% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.14% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.11% Russia MV, RSX
0.10% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.08% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.07% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.05% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.05% Global 100, IOO
0.04% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.03% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.03% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.02% EAFE Index, EFA
0.00% Italy Index, EWI
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.02% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.04% Dividend International, PID
-0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.06% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.06% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.08% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.09% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.10% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.11% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.11% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.12% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.13% Spain Index, EWP
-0.14% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.18% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.19% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.19% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.21% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.21% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.22% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.24% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.24% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.24% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.25% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.26% Australia Index, EWA
-0.27% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.27% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.27% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.28% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.29% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.29% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.29% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.31% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.32% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.33% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.34% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.35% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.36% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.37% Networking, IGN
-0.37% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.38% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.38% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.40% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.41% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.41% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.43% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.43% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.43% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.43% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.44% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.46% Canada Index, EWC
-0.47% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.48% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.48% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.48% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.49% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.51% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.51% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.51% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.52% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.53% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.57% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.59% Germany Index, EWG
-0.62% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.67% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.67% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.68% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.69% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.70% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.71% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.75% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.76% Water Resources, PHO
-0.76% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.76% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.86% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.86% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.92% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.93% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.94% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.94% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.95% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.05% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.07% Austria Index, EWO
-1.19% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.34% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.55% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.58% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.64% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.65% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.65% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.67% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.73% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.79% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.87% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.05% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.14% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.26% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.42% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.94% Biotech SPDR, XBI
