|
Daily State of the Markets The impetus behind Thursday’s sudden reversal of fortunes was easily identifiable (for a change) as the report from the Philly Fed was nothing short of a debacle. The manufacturing oriented index not only came in well below expectations (-7.7 vs. consensus +7.3), it also fell below zero – a sign that the manufacturing sector in the region is contracting. The key here is this was the very first sign we’ve seen of contraction in the economy. While we have had lots and lots of data confirming a slowdown in the rate of growth, up until yesterday morning, there had been zero signs of an actual contraction. As such, the bear were quick to tell anyone willing to listen that the Philly Fed Index was but the tip of the iceberg in terms of bad news yet to come. While there are virtually no economists calling for the U.S. to slip back into recession at this time, we do have to admit that the numbers from the Philly Fed are disconcerting. Thus, anyone who finds themselves on the fence regarding the macroeconomic outlook suddenly had a reason to do some de-risking on Thursday. However, before you start stocking up on canned goods and begin preparations for another 6-month stint in the man cave, let’s keep in mind that one report does not a recession make. We should also keep in mind that the day got started with some upbeat economic news from across the pond as the Bundesbank upped their forecast for GDP growth in Germany. As far as the stock market action is concerned, we’re going to suggest that although the 145 point decline seen on the Dow was no picnic, it also wasn’t too terribly bad. Frankly, given the potential implications of the data, it would not have been surprising to see the indices finish down twice as much. While days like Thursday are more than a little annoying and it is never fun to watch account values pull back, we will remind everyone that this market remains range bound and driven by news. Therefore, the losses from Thursday could easily be made up when a piece of good news crosses the wires – assuming we get some good news, that is. Turning to this morning… we do not have any economic data to review before the bell. However, on this options expiration Friday, it appears that the risk aversion trade is back on and stock futures are pointing lower. Finally, best of luck on this Friday and be sure to enjoy the weekend! Pre-Game Indicators Here are the important indicators we review each morning before the opening bell…
* Report includes items that make comparisons to the consensus estimate questionable Wall Street Research Summary Upgrades: |
||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ternium (TX) – Barclays Meadwestvaco (MWV) – Deutsche Bank Republic Services (RSG) – Goldman Marvell (MRVL) – Estimates and target increased at JPMorgan Salesforce.com (CRM) – Target increased at Kaufman Bros. Symantec (SYMC) – UBS
Aeropostale (ARO) – Cowen & Co. McAfee (MFE) – FBR Capital Stericycle (SRCL) – Goldman Corning (GLW) – Jefferies Research In Motion (RIMM) – Morgan Stanley
Long positions in stocks mentioned: none
For more “top stock” portfolios and research, visit TopStockPortfolios.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, founder of TopStockPortfolios.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of TopStockPortfolios and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Stocks should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.
The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
The information contained in our websites and TopStockPortfolios publications is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer.
Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.
Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
