The battle is on in the killing fields.One day goes to the bear; one day goes to the bull.The bulls are storming uphill;the bears are firing downhill into the ranks of the bulls.The pitch is rising to a fever.
I don’t know of anybody who believes that there will be a “V” shaped turn around in this market.I don’t know of anybody who’s willing to say the bear market is over.It’s too early for anybody to say.Too early even if this is the beginning of the end for the bear.
We need to remember that a change of trend is as easy as 1-2-3 to identify–after the fact.Here’s what I need to see before I agree the trend has changed.1.)The downtrend line has been broken.This appears to have happened.2.)The trend stops making lower lows.We will know this has happened if the retest of the previous low holds.3.)Prices go back up and breakout above a previous short-term minor rally high.We are probably marking the short-term minor rally high now.
At the point when all three of these events have occurred, there exists the equivalent of a Dow Theory confirmation of a change of trend.
Two out of three increases the probability of a change of trend.Three out of three defines a change of trend.
So far we have one and the killing goes on in the killing fields.
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