Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price rose above the highs of the previous 2 years on 9/19/11, reconfirming a major uptrend.
Energy Sector SPDR ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 8-month lows, reconfirming a significant downtrend.
Financial Sector SPDR ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2-years, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF /SPY) fell below 29-month lows. This basket of the stocks of Brazil, Russia, India and China is in a relatively bearish major trend.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below the lows of the previous 5 weeks, reconfirming a minor downtrend within a larger downtrend.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price broke down from a Bearish Rising Wedge pattern, thereby signaling renewed bearish momentum.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC ) remains bearish. JJC fell below the lows of the previous 10-months. Weakness in Copper suggests doubts about the economic outlook.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,204.09) fell 11.92 points or 0.98% on Monday, September 19, 2011. Yesterday I warned: “Stocks appear overbought, and short-term price momentum started to slow on Friday.”
Foreign stock indexes fell more than twice as much: iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) fell 2.75% and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) fell 2.96%. The Relative Strength Ratios of both EFA and EEM fell below 2-year lows, relative to the S&P 500.
Since April 29, 2011, the S&P 500 is down 11.70%. My analysis continues to indicate that downside risks remain high for global stock markets. I expect world stock markets to continue to move lower–probably substantially lower.
Minor upside reversals against the dominant bear trend lure short-term traders into trying to trade a bounce. Minor price corrections against the trend are normal and expected, of course, but playing minor counter trend bounces is risky. The mood can switch from “risk on” to “risk off” overnight, leaving the too-clever trader suddenly holding the bag, as we have seen repeatedly in recent weeks. And in a bear market, the big surprises come to the downside.
Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
15.84% , GR , GOODRICH CORP
0.55% , PMR , Retail, PMR
3.09% , WPI , WATSON PHARM
2.58% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
3.68% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
4.86% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
3.69% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
2.40% , TYC , TYCO INTL
5.00% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
1.88% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.91% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
2.78% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
0.07% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
2.08% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
0.88% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.82% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.77% , D , DOMINION RSCS
0.67% , WMB , WILLIAMS
1.88% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.95% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.62% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
0.25% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.40% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
0.84% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
0.16% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
0.22% , QLD , Ultra QQQ Double, QLD
0.71% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
1.03% , CBS , CBS CORP.
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.74% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-2.30% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-4.14% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-1.83% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-2.73% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.72% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-3.33% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.44% , JKF , Value LargeCap iS M, JKF
-1.50% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-1.02% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-1.30% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
-3.56% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.97% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-0.97% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-3.89% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-3.17% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-2.60% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.08% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-3.76% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-3.12% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-1.74% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-6.93% , PWER , POWER ONE
-1.35% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.80% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-0.79% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
-1.52% , VB , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.00% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-0.72% , IGV , Software, IGV
-1.66% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-3.30% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.69% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.76% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-3.19% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.91% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.82% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.55% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.25% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.25% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.22% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.04% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.10% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.15% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.16% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.19% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.24% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.36% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.40% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.49% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.56% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.57% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.57% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.60% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.65% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.65% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.65% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.73% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.78% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.83% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.84% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.87% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.87% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.89% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.92% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.92% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.94% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.94% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.94% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.96% Networking, IGN
-0.97% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.99% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.00% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.00% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.02% Financial Preferred, PGF
-1.02% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.03% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.05% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.06% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.06% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.07% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.08% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.10% Water Resources, PHO
-1.13% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.13% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.23% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.24% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.25% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.27% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.30% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.35% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.35% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.38% Dividend International, PID
-1.39% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.39% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.41% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.44% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.44% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.48% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.49% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.50% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.51% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.52% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.52% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.55% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.58% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.60% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.64% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.66% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.69% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.70% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.71% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.71% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.76% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.79% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.80% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.82% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.83% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.84% Global 100, IOO
-1.88% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.88% Energy Global, IXC
-1.96% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.97% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.98% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.99% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.00% India PS, PIN
-2.01% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.02% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.02% Canada Index, EWC
-2.10% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.14% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.19% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-2.32% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-2.41% Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.48% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.49% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.51% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.52% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.53% Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.56% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.60% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.65% Spain Index, EWP
-2.67% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.70% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.73% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.75% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.75% EAFE Index, EFA
-2.77% Russia MV, RSX
-2.78% Taiwan Index, EWT
-2.81% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.82% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.82% Australia Index, EWA
-2.83% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-2.84% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.96% Emerging Markets, EEM
-3.02% Belgium Index, EWK
-3.10% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-3.17% South Africa Index, EZA
-3.17% European VIPERs, VGK
-3.18% Netherlands Index, EWN
-3.19% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-3.24% Singapore Index, EWS
-3.30% France Index, EWQ
-3.30% China 25 iS, FXI
-3.35% Malaysia Index, EWM
-3.39% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.43% Italy Index, EWI
-3.54% Germany Index, EWG
-3.56% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-3.75% South Korea Index, EWY
-4.14% Austria Index, EWO
-4.47% Sweden Index, EWD
-5.05% Indonesia MV, IDX
