July was another terrific month for the Oxen Report. Our Buy/Overnight/Week Trade Portfolio for 2010 is up 57% so far this year with 89 trades. We have gotten 67 of these 89 actionable trades correct, giving the portfolio a 75% success rate thus far for the year. The Short Sale Portfolio is up over 11% thus far this year on 44 trades, and it has over a 75% success rate as well with 33 correct trades. Finally, we have a new portfolio that just started in May for Long Term Investments. The portfolio is not one that needs to be updated on a daily basis, but we will continue to watch for developments that would change my thoughts on our fair value estimates for them. Our 2009 portfolios ended with Buy Picks up 108% in 9 months. The Short Sale Portfolio ended up 10% in 6 months.
The way that my portfolio works is that for Buy/Overnight/Week, I have started with $10000 in 2010. This amount is divided between four mini-accounts that each have $2500 in them. These mini-accounts A-D are rotated through each other so that I can account for multiple positions being open at one time and having time to let money settle after selling a position. Below the account portfolio for June of 2010 is available. The portfolio shows entry, exit, amount gained/lost, changes in account and total money, and the date of action. If you would like to view January – June, click here.
The Buy/Overnight/Weekly Portfolio
| 06/28/2010 -07/01/10 | SCHN | 42.5 | 40.43 | -4.87% | -163.25 | 3041.09 | 14257.64 | |||
| 06/29/2010 – 07/01/10 | SCHN | 40.2 | 40.43 | 0.32% | 1.36 | 2920.4 | 14259 | |||
| 06/29/2010 – 07/01/10 | WOR | 13.4 | 12.9 | -3.73% | -180 | 4436.74 | 14079 | |||
| 06/30/2010 – 07/01/10 | CBK | 6.4 | 6.9 | 7.81% | 271.5 | 3853.8 | 14350.5 | |||
| 07/06/10 – 07/07/10 | FDO | 39.3 | 37.25 | -5.22% | -165.85 | 2875.24 | 14184.65 | |||
| 07/07/10 | SIRI | 0.98 | 1.01 | 3.00% | 81.4 | 3001.8 | 14266.05 | |||
| 07/08/2010 – 07/09/2010 | AA | 10.54 | 10.91 | 3.50% | 147.4 | 4584.14 | 14413.19 | |||
| 07/09/10 | SKF | 21.65 | 21.33 | -1.50% | -64.96 | 3788.84 | 14348.23 | |||
| 07/12/10 | WY | 37.8 | 38.55 | 2.00% | 49 | 2924.24 | 14397.23 | |||
| 07/12/10 | AMD | 7.48 | ½ @ 7.78 (7/14), ½ @ 7.23 (7/16) | 0.45% | -1.7 | 3000.1 | 14395.53 | |||
| 07/13/2010 – 07/14/10 | AMR | 7 | 7.28 | 4.00% | 175.12 | 4759.26 | 14570.65 | |||
| 07/13/2010 – 07/16/10 | Mar | 31.95 | 31.58 | -1.25% | -51.66 | 3737.18 | 14518.99 | |||
| 07/14/10 – 07/15/10 | FCS | 9.6 | 10.05 | 5.00% | 128.8 | 3053.04 | 14647.79 | |||
| 07/15/2010 – 07/16/10 | BAC | 15.56 | 14.63 | -6.00% | -291.65 | 4467.61 | 14356.14 | |||
| 07/19/2010 – 07/20/10 | WHR | 88.5 | 91.5 | 2.90% | 94 | 3147.04 | 14450.14 | |||
| 07/20/10 | STX | 13.85 | 14.26 | 3.00% | 80.56 | 3080.66 | 14530.7 | |||
| 07/20/2010 – 07/21/10 | ETN | 68.5 | 72.75 | 6.20% | 268.25 | 4735.86 | 14798.95 | |||
| 07/21/2010 – 07/22/10 | RS | 36.8 | 37.75 | 2.55% | 87.95 | 3825.13 | 14886.9 | |||
| 07/23/10 | XRAY | 29.05 | 29.4 | 1.20% | 29.8 | 3176.84 | 14916.7 | |||
| 07/26/10 | TER | 10.2 | 10.65 | 4.50% | 127.9 | 3208.56 | 15044.6 | |||
| 07/27/10 – 07/28/10 | SLAB | 42.92 | 40.77 | -5.00% | -244.5 | 4491.36 | 14800.1 | |||
| 07/28/2010 – 07/29/2010 | TER | 10.15 | 11.15 | 10.00% | 368 | 4193.13 | 15168 | |||
| 07/28/2010 – 07/29/2010 | SKX | 35.5 | 38.75 | 9.00% | 281.25 | 3458.09 | 15449.25 | |||
| 07/30/2010 – 08/02/10 | WATG | 8.1 | 8.2 | 1.25% | 31.6 | 3240.16 | 15480.85 | |||
| 07/30/2010 – 08//2010 | KLIC | 6.65 | 6.95 | 4.75% | 194.5 | 4685.86 | 15675.35 | |||
| 08/02/10 | HNT | 23.7 | 24.31 | 3.00% | 99.36 | 4292.49 | 15774.71 |
The Short Sale Portfolio, which is up 11% this year, is done in the same way as the Buy Portfolio. The only difference is that the Portfolio has three rotating accounts rather than four.
| 07/07/10 | JASO | 5.42 | 5.68 | -5.00% | -128.24 | 2589.52 | 8101.11 | ||
| 07/09/10 | PSMT | 25.35 | 24.85 | 2.00% | 42.5 | 2624.27 | 8143.61 | ||
| 07/12/10 | STEC | 15.5 | 15.04 | 3.00% | 78.94 | 3010.53 | 8222.55 | ||
| 07/15/10 | JNPR | 26.75 | 26.24 | 2.00% | 40.96 | 2630.48 | 8263.51 | ||
| 07/20/10 | HOV | 3.75 | 3.68 | 2.00% | 40.93 | 2665.2 | 8304.44 | ||
| 07/23/10 | SWKS (DD) | 18.25 | 18.79 | -3.00% | -80.56 | 2929.97 | 8223.88 | ||
| 07/27/10 | X | 47.45 | 46.1 | 2.80% | 66.25 | 2696.73 | 8290.13 | ||
| 08/02/10 | MNKD | 7.33 | 7.12 | 3.00% | 68.23 | 2733.43 | 8358.36 |
Long Term Portfolio
This portfolio is our only blemish. The rough second half of June hurt these positions, but I expect them all to bounce back.
| Date of Entry | Stock | Entry Price | Current Price | % Change | Fair Value Estimate |
| 05/27/10 | TSL | 17.65 | 24.31 | 37.75% | $30.00 |
| 06/04/10 | GMCR | 24.05 | 31.78 | -32.15% | $15.63 |
| 06/14/10 | CAAS | 18.3 | 18.99 | 3.75% | $28.78 |
| 06/18/10 | JWN | 38.65 | 35.03 | -9.35% | $52.00 |
| 06/25/10 | JCI | 27.5 | 30.17 | 9.70% | $46.25 |
| 07/16/10 | PAYX | 26 | 25.77 | 0.88% | $40.30 |
| 07/23/10 | SPWRA | 12.5 | 13.38 | 7.00% | $16.50 |
| 08/06/10 | JACK | 19.4 | 19.83 | 2.25% | $32.00 |
Good Investing,
David Ristau
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