I feel a slight buzz in the air about the holidays lurking right now. The malls were busy to start the holiday shopping season and sales are up from one year ago. On recap, last week was definitely a tough week due to my illness, but I am back with full powers this week. Friday, we had one great pick and one horrible pick. On QLTI, we lost 3%. The stock did pretty much the exact opposite of what I expected and ended up, even with a almost 2% down day. We did, however, have good success with Fifth Third Bancorp’s short sale. We got in at 9.80, and we were able to sell it at 9.61 for a solid 2% gain right before the close of the day.
1/2 not too bad for having the flu. Let’s get into a 2/2 day.
Buy Pick of the Day: Aeropostale Inc. (ARO)
Analysis:
Retailers got some good news this morning on a number of fronts that I believe should help the market challenge the overhand on the Dubai market issues we saw Friday. ShopperTrak, which is a research firm on retail, said that they saw the after Thanksgiving season up 0.5% in sale totals from one year ago, according to initial data. The total was $10.66 billion. Online sales were up 11% from one year ago. Even with the encouraging news, the National Retail Federation is still expecting a 1% decline from one year ago in total sales.
Not all analysts were excited, as John Long from Kurt Salmon Associates commented, “Forget Black Friday for bricks and Cyber Monday for clicks — this year it’s all about making it easy for customers to satisfy their shopping fix … we’re still seeing cautious spending. The pie isn’t increasing whether you decide to buy in the stores or online.”
Yet, some analysts this morning, including myself, are excited about these stocks. American Eagle received an upgrade from Lazard Capital Markets, and Abercrombie received an upgrade from FBR Capital. These two upgrades have helped to lift these stocks in the morning. Further, in after hours, we are getting an earnings report from Guess?. I think all of this is reason for retail to look towards a positive day, and it could even be the market leader.
Aeropostale is my pick of the day because it has gone under the radar and is undervalued, but it will definitely get some added attention…
