The Oxen Report: Jobless Claims Drop Only Slightly and Miss Estimates, Will It Weigh on Market?

Yesterday, we got into an Overnight Trade of the Day in New York & Co. (NWY) at 4.34. We are looking to sell this Trade right away this morning within minutes of opening. The company reported an EPS right in line with what analysts had been expecting, which was not exactly what I had expected. What is good news, though, is that headlines are playing up that NWY swung to a Q4 profit. Swinging to a profit is a very lucrative term, so we should be in business. The stock is not traded pre-market, so I have no idea where the market wants to take this, but I am thinking we should make some good money off the start of the day.

For today, I am looking at a perfect short sale for a market that may be ready for a bit of a pullback.

Short Sale of the Day: Steinmart Inc. (SMRT)

Analysis: Today, the market should be in store for a pullback. We have a number of indicators that have come out and are buzzing around that are not too great fundamentally for the market. First off, unemployment claims. While the number has decreased week-over-week for three straight weeks, unemployment claims missed target estimates by 2,000 and are still very high – only declining 5,000 from last week and sitting at 457,000. The chart below explains the dismal employment state further.

	Advance				Prior1
WEEK ENDING	March 13	March 6	Change	Feb. 27	Year

Initial Claims (SA)	457,000	462,000	-5,000	468,000	644,000
Initial Claims (NSA)	432,166	460,249	-28,083	471,256	601,163
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)	471,250	475,500	-4,250	470,500	650,000

Another issue the market is facing going into today is renewed issues with Greek debt. The country has once again commented on the need for more international assistance to help them with debt issues. Many European markets were down or are trading with very slight gains as a result of this news. Futures are up going into the day, but once some market buzz at the beginning of the day dies off, initial claims and a very toppy market should weigh on stocks.

In case it does not, however, I have selected a short sale that should do well either way. Steinmart, this morning, continued the retail trend with some really sexy earnings. The company reported an EPS beat 0.19 vs. 0.17 and beat revenue estimates by over 1%. The earnings, however, were not exceptional, and the stock is up over 7% in pre-market trading. Revenue was down 6% year-over-year.