Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) turned downward on 11/8/11 to end the day below the closing prices of the previous 5 trading days. TLT tested and held its 50-day SMA and remains well above its 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 11/8/11, reconfirming the preexisting downtrend. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA of the EFA/SPY Ratio every day since 1/14/11.
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned downward on 11/8/11 to end the day below the closing prices of the previous 5 trading days. UUP price is below both the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) rose further above 3-month highs on 11/8/11. The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, however, implying a neutral medium-term trend.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,275.92) rose 14.80 points or 1.17% on Tuesday, November 8, 2011, thereby making back most of its loss on 10/31/11 and 11/1/11.
Trading volume on the NYSE rose 15% above Monday’s extremely slow pace but was still substantially below the volume on down days 10/31/11 and 11/1/11.
When volume on rising price days is less than volume on falling price days, the market is vulnerable.
The high price volatility of recent months is typical of bear markets. In contrast, bull markets are much less volatile.
Longer-term indicators still are far from confirming any change in the Bearish Primary Tide Trend. For example, 50-day SMAs are well below 200-day SMAs for most stocks and indexes.
Ripples and Secondary Reactions opposite to the Dow Theory Primary Tide Trend lure short-term traders into trying to trade a bounce. Price corrections against the larger trends are normal and expected, of course, but playing counter-trend bounces is risky. The mood can switch from “risk on” to “risk off” overnight, leaving the too-clever trader suddenly holding the bag.
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. Both Averages would have to close above their closing price highs for the year to indicate a “Turn in the Tide”.
A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
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Includes Top Ten ETFs, Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings, charts, support and resistance levels, and much more.
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Stock Market Indicators
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio has been correcting and consolidating gains since peaking on 9/23/11.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 11/2/11, thereby turning neutral again. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 11/2/11, thereby turning neutral again. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 weeks on 11/8/11, reconfirming the preexisting downtrend. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA of the EFA/SPY Ratio every day since 1/14/11.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the past 3 months on 11/4/11, confirming a medium-term correction to the downside. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price also remains neutral.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price also remains neutral.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 43.2% Bulls versus 36.8% Bears as of 11/2/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio rose to 1.17, up from a 2-year low of 0.74 on 10/12/11. The Bull/Bear Ratio has been below its 20-year median of 1.56 and mean of 1.64 for 11 consecutive weeks, since 8/24/11.
VIX Fear Index fell to 24.44 on 10/28/11, down from a high of 48.00 on 8/8/11, suggesting that fear had decreased substantially. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,275.92) Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,275.92) Potential Support
1273.05, 200-day SMA
1263.21, high of 11/3/2011
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1190.58, low of 10/13/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) turned downward on 11/8/11 to end the day below the closing prices of the previous 5 trading days. TLT tested and held its 50-day SMA and remains well above its 200-day SMA. Support 115.50, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 119.49 and 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) turned downward on 11/8/11 to end the day below the closing prices of the previous 5 trading days. IEF closed below its 50-day SMA, thereby turning neutral, but remains well above its 200-day SMA. Support 103.69, 103.57, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 104.65 and 106.66.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has lost upside momentum since peaking on 10/24/11–this following a minor Ripple bounce from 10/4/11 to 10/24/11. Longer term, JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11, which reconfirmed a bearish major trend.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has lost upside momentum since peaking on 10/27/11 and remains technically neutral between its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Since making a low on 9/30/11, TIP/IEF has recovered less than half of larger losses since 4/8/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned downward on 11/8/11 to end the day below the closing prices of the previous 5 trading days. UUP price is below both the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA. Support 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.88, 21.91, and 22.63.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 14 trading days on 11/1/11, confirming a short-term downtrend. This after falling below the lows of the previous 10 months on 10/3/11, which reconfirmed a major long-term downtrend.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) rose further above 3-month highs on 11/8/11. The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, however, implying a neutral medium-term trend. Longer term, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.47, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) broke out above 6-week highs on 11/7/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish trend. Price remains bullishly above its 50- and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, new highs on 9/6/11 confirmed a major bull market. Support: 163.61, 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 177.40 and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above the highs of the previous 6 weeks on 11/7/11. GDX/GLD is medium-term trend neutral, between 50- and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above the highs of the previous 5 trading days on 11/7/11, which may be bullish for the short-term trend. Longer term, SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/19/11, fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11, and remains bearishly below both SMAs. Support 31.50, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) has stayed in bearish position, below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs, every day since 8/4/11 Longer term, the SLV/GLD Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 11 months on 9/30/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend. SLV/GLD has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its 50-day SMA again on 10/31/11, returning to its persistent bearish trend. JJC broke down below the lows of the previous 14 months on 10/5/11, confirming a bearish major trend. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.40% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
1.30% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
1.99% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.07% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
1.38% , IGN , Networking, IGN
9.92% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
2.24% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
0.79% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
1.17% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
6.47% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
1.33% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
1.56% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
1.85% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.54% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
3.35% , ASH , ASHLAND
4.18% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
1.17% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
5.30% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
5.29% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
1.15% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
0.86% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
1.76% , JKE , Growth LargeCap iS M, JKE
4.43% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
2.18% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
2.63% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
4.79% , SNV , SYNOVUS
2.92% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
2.37% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
1.81% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
3.08% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
2.38% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
4.37% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
1.14% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-10.24% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
-3.04% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-3.20% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-0.62% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.66% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-4.20% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
-1.09% , K , KELLOGG
-1.49% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
-1.38% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-2.11% , AN , AUTONATION
-0.31% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-0.88% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-1.22% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.90% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.48% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-2.23% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-1.41% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-1.91% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.02% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-2.46% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.96% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-0.81% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-1.01% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.57% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-0.30% , KSS , KOHLS
-0.23% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.58% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-2.66% , ITT , ITT INDS
-0.28% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-0.35% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
-0.23% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.10% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-0.13% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.91% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.57% Austria Index, EWO
2.49% Italy Index, EWI
2.29% Belgium Index, EWK
2.21% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.18% Financial Services DJ, IYG
2.07% France Index, EWQ
2.00% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.99% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.99% European VIPERs, VGK
1.96% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.94% China 25 iS, FXI
1.89% Russia MV, RSX
1.88% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.88% Germany Index, EWG
1.87% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.86% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.81% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.81% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.76% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.67% Switzerland Index, EWL
1.63% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.61% Mexico Index, EWW
1.51% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.49% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.48% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.47% Energy DJ, IYE
1.46% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.46% Global 100, IOO
1.46% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.46% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.44% South Africa Index, EZA
1.41% Sweden Index, EWD
1.41% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.38% Networking, IGN
1.36% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.35% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.33% Water Resources, PHO
1.33% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.32% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.31% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.30% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.30% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.30% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.30% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.28% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.28% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.27% Australia Index, EWA
1.26% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.26% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.25% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.25% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.25% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.24% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.23% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.23% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.23% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.22% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.22% Energy Global, IXC
1.22% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.21% EAFE Index, EFA
1.20% Spain Index, EWP
1.20% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.20% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.20% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.20% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.20% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.19% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.19% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.19% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.18% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.18% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.17% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.16% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.16% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.15% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.15% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.14% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.14% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.14% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.13% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.13% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.12% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.11% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.11% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.10% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.08% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.07% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.06% Dividend International, PID
1.05% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.03% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.01% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.00% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.99% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.97% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.95% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.92% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.91% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.90% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.90% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.88% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.83% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.80% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.79% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.73% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.72% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.69% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.68% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.66% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.65% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.62% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.61% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.60% Canada Index, EWC
0.58% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.49% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.49% Singapore Index, EWS
0.45% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.45% India PS, PIN
0.44% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.35% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.26% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.24% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.23% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.23% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.19% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.19% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.12% South Korea Index, EWY
0.11% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.04% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.14% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.23% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.23% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.42% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.45% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.62% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.66% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.83% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.87% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.28% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
