Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month low on 8/30/10 and remains bearish.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) absolute price fell into the bearish zone on 8/30/10. Price is below both SMAs, and the price 50-day remains below the 200-day SMA.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose above 4-month highs on 8/30/10, confirming an intermediate-term Secondary Uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,048.92 ) fell 15.67 points or 1.47%, thereby giving up 89% of Friday’s 1.66% gain. SPX remains below a 3-week trendline as well as below falling 50 and 200 SMAs. The market may need to demonstrate upside follow-through in order to turn around investor confidence, which has fallen to a low level. Rally attempts appear to be unable to attract much of a following. It still feels like a “show me” market. One of the problems is that, since April 2010, the high volume days have been down days, suggesting that supply of stocks for sale has dominated buying demand for stocks. The stock market has been consolidating in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/2010. Without a strong bullish catalyst, further consolidation seems likely for the days ahead.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.39% , GENZ , GENZYME
0.38% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
0.37% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
1.69% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
0.17% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.59% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
0.70% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
0.22% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
1.01% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
0.83% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
0.60% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
0.15% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.39% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
0.32% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
0.21% , DYN , DYNEGY
0.05% , EMC , EMC
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.10% , DSV , Value Small Cap DJ, DSV
-1.59% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-0.54% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-1.97% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-0.98% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-1.61% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.32% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
-1.81% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-1.64% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
-1.75% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.63% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-1.73% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
-2.41% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-1.48% , IGV , Software, IGV
-1.53% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
-1.38% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
-1.35% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-1.40% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-2.38% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.18% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-1.59% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-2.71% , SYY , SYSCO
-2.14% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-2.88% , EL , Estee Lauder
-0.59% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-0.79% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.80% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-1.19% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-1.23% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-1.60% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.49% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-1.90% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.81% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-2.69% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-1.44% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.78% , SLE , SARA LEE
-2.70% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
-1.62% , HNZ , HJ HEINZ
-1.25% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.78% , HSY , HERSHEY FOODS
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Utilities (XLU) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose to a new 12-month high on 8/27/10 and remains bullish: above 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 above the 200. Absolute price of XLU turned bullish on 8/18/10 with a SMA bullish crossover (50>200). Support 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 31.64 and 32.08.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-month highs on 8/24/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Absolute price of XLP turned neutral on 8/27/10 as price closed above the 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA of price remains below the 200-day SMA. Support 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 8-week highs on 8/20/10, confirming a bullish trend. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLY turned bearish on 8/20/10 as the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 32.41, 33.12, 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) bounced off its 200-day SMA on 8/24/10 but remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price fell below to its 50-day SMA on 8/24/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 32.93, 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) crossed below the 50-day SMA 8/24/10, turning neutral. Absolute price fell further below 4-week lows on 8/24/10 and remains bearish relative to both SMAs (50 and 200). Support 27.67, 26.79 and 26.66. Resistance 31.15, 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell to a 3-month low on 8/13/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLK remains bearish, below both SMAs and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 20.01 and 19.51. Resistance 22.62, 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV has been bearish since peaking on 1/20/10. Support 27.49. Resistance 29.38, 29.93, 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Energy (XLE) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has been bearish since peaking on 7/1/08 and fell below 8-week lows on 8/26/10. Absolute price of XLE turned bearish after peaking on 4/26/10. Support 50.42, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 56.70, 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 9-month low on 8/30/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price fell to a new 12-month low on 8/25/10 and has been in a bearish trend since peaking on 4/15/10. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose to another new 10-month high on 8/20/10, again confirming a significant bullish trend. Absolute price of EEM fell into the bearish zone on 8/30/10. Price is below both SMAs, and the price 50-day remains below the 200-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 6-month lows on 8/13/10, thereby confirming a significant correction to the downside.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 6/15/10. Longer term, RSP /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 11/19/08.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) appears to be consolidating losses since its low on 6/15/10. Big caps have been out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 2-week highs on 8/27/10 and is remains technically neutral. Still, this Ratio has demonstrated underperformance of Small Caps since peaking on 5/17/10. Longer term, however, IWM/SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/8/99.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) appears neutral for the intermediate term, consolidating gains since peaking on 5/28/10. Longer term, MDY /SPY has been bullish, trending upward since 4/7/99.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract rose above 5-day highs on 8/27/10. The 3-week August downtrend may be in doubt. A longer time frame downside correction started after the 87.15 peak on 5/3/10. Support 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 77.03, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract consolidated gains since rising above 8-week highs on 8/26/10, and again confirming a significant uptrend. Support 1210.9, 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1120.9, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9, and 989.3. Resistance: 1264.8, 1263.7, and 1266.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been whipsawing sideways through moving averages in recent months. Best stand aside until a clear trend emerges.
Silver/Gold Ratio has been mostly neutral, consolidating losses since making a low on 2/8/10. Longer term, Silver has underperformed Gold since 4/19/06.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose above 4-month highs on 8/30/10, confirming an intermediate-term Secondary Uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.68, 3.795, 4.0825, and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose sharply on Monday 8/30/10, erasing most of Friday’s loss. Bonds previously had soared to a 19-month high in the morning of Wednesday 8/25/10 before reversing to close lower, and that could have marked overbought exhaustion for the short term. The major trend remains bullish. Support 130.29, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 3-month lows on 8/26/10, again confirming the preexisting bearish trend. The Ratio has been heading lower since the peak on 1/8/10. From 3/9/09 to 1/8/10, JNK/LQD was bullish, with the ratio moving upward and Junk outperforming.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell further below 15-month lows on 8/24/10 and remains RELATIVELY bearish. This implies that investors are choosing less inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price has been consolidating gains since making a 4-week high at 83.635 on 8/24/10. The short-term trend appears to be bullish, while the larger time frames appear uncertain. Support 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 83.64, 85.36, 86.71, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 33.3% Bulls versus 31.21% Bears as of 8/25/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1.07, down from 1.18 the previous week. This ratio hit a low at 0.94 on 7/14/10, which was the lowest since 0.82 on 4/1/09. The ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
The Dow Theory suggests a Minor Ripple to the downside within a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. In recent weeks, since join closing highs on 8/9/10, both Averages have been giving back most of the gains made from the lows on 7/2/10 to the highs on 8/9/10. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,048.92 ) fell 15.67 points or 1.47%, thereby giving up 89% of Friday’s 1.66% gain. SPX remains below a 3-week trendline as well as below falling 50 and 200 SMAs. The market may need to demonstrate upside follow-through in order to turn around investor confidence, which has fallen to a low level. Rally attempts appear to be unable to attract much of a following. It still feels like a “show me” market. One of the problems is that, since April 2010, the high volume days have been down days, suggesting that supply of stocks for sale has dominated buying demand for stocks. The stock market has been consolidating in a trading range between the SPX 1131.23 high of 6/21/2010 and the SPX 1010.91 low of 7/1/2010. Without a strong bullish catalyst, further consolidation seems likely for the days ahead.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1040.00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2010 range
1131.23, high of 6/21/2010
1071.07, Gann 50.0% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1069.49, low of 8/16/10
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.91% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.76% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.68% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.65% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.45% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.23% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.18% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.17% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.15% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.12% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.05% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.01% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.08% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.14% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.17% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.18% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.31% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.32% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.37% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.42% Canada Index, EWC
-0.44% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.49% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.56% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.65% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.71% Australia Index, EWA
-0.76% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.78% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.79% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.86% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.87% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.87% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.89% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.92% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.01% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.04% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-1.05% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.08% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.16% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.19% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.20% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.22% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.24% Dividend International, PID
-1.25% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.26% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.27% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.29% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.31% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.31% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.33% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.33% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.33% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.34% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.35% Energy Global, IXC
-1.36% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.38% Global 100, IOO
-1.39% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.40% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.41% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.41% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.44% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.45% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.45% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.46% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.46% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.46% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.48% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.48% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.50% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.50% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.51% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.51% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.52% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.53% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.53% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.54% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.56% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.57% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.58% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.59% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.59% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.59% Networking, IGN
-1.60% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.60% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.61% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.61% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.62% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.63% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.64% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.64% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.65% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.67% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.69% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.70% India PS, PIN
-1.70% Russia MV, RSX
-1.72% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.75% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.76% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.78% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.81% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.86% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.87% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.90% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.96% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.98% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.00% Austria Index, EWO
-2.01% Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.02% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.05% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.07% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.08% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.09% Germany Index, EWG
-2.10% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.10% Spain Index, EWP
-2.11% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.16% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-2.17% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.19% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-2.19% Water Resources, PHO
-2.21% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-2.21% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.22% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-2.24% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-2.26% France Index, EWQ
-2.27% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.38% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.44% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.44% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-2.47% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.58% Italy Index, EWI
-2.61% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.61% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.67% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-2.74% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.76% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-2.78% Indonesia MV, IDX
-3.18% Sweden Index, EWD
