Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA again, thereby turning systematically bearish again. This suggests “Risk Off” among bond investors.
NYSE Cumulative Volume of Advancing Stocks Minus Volume of Declining Stocks continues to lag the S&P 500 Composite Stock Price Index. Note the lower high in Cumulative Volume in 2012 compared to its high in 2011. In addition, the June-July 2012 bounce for the S&P 500 recovered more than 68% of its April-June decline, while the NYSE Cumulative Volume of Advancing Stocks Minus Volume of Declining Stocks recovered only 60% of its April-June decline. For months, I have been noting here a general tendency for rising volume on price declines and shrinking volume on price advances. This is a divergence that suggests a bearish demand-supply balance for stocks.
Pundits had said they expected some kind of monetary easing in Europe last week, and they got it Thursday morning. Traders sold on the news. The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,354.68) fell 1.14% on Thursday and Friday. There seems to be a growing perception that monetary easing is not proving to be effective in stemming the tide of global economic slowdown.
Price weakness in Copper, which is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
A 7.51% bounce in the S&P 500 from 6/1/12 to 7/3/12, based on closing prices, left the stock market in an overbought position. Risk of a further downside price correction probably exceeds upside potential for the short term.
Longer term, at the ripe old age of 1,215 calendar days, which is 3.33 years, since 3/9/2009, the bull may be on his last legs.
For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.02, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/2/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again. CRB remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) rose above its 200-day SMA on 7/3/12 and remains neutral: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has been consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically bearish on 6/7/12, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. USO remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 33.08, 33.66, 34.76, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA again on 7/6/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 6/29/12, turning systematically neutral again. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 6/28/12, thereby confirming its preexisting major bearish trend. SLV remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 27.98, 28.26, 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 6/28/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/5/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. In addition, JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.02% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
1.62% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
5.33% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
1.85% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.94% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
1.98% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
0.89% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
1.29% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.93% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
2.42% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.37% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.40% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
0.77% , NI , NISOURCE
0.98% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
0.61% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
0.14% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.07% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.11% , ITT , ITT INDS
0.13% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
0.24% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.08% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
0.38% , EQR , EQUITY RESIDENT BEN INT
0.11% , VFC , VF
0.14% , PPL , PPL
0.05% , EXC , EXELON CORP
0.78% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
0.03% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.54% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
0.08% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
0.06% , MTB , M&T BANK
0.01% , GR , GOODRICH CORP
0.07% , PEP , PEPSICO
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.33% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.30% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-6.75% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-10.48% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-1.25% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-7.23% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-7.56% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-0.91% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-8.08% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
-6.58% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-1.84% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-2.55% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-5.61% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-1.20% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
-4.64% , EMC , EMC
-4.02% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-2.52% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-4.25% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-1.51% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
-2.05% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
-1.40% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
-4.12% , IGV , Software, IGV
-3.34% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-3.56% , A , AGILENT TECH
-5.34% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-3.32% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
-2.95% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-4.37% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-4.21% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-3.57% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-3.58% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
-0.72% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
-4.11% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.94% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.93% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.38% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.37% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.35% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.25% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.24% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.21% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.15% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.15% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.14% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.14% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.03% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.08% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.11% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.13% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.15% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.22% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.27% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.30% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.32% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.33% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.39% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.43% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.43% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.48% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.55% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.63% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.66% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.67% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.67% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.68% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.72% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.73% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.73% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.75% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.75% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.75% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.76% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.79% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.80% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.81% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.81% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.82% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.84% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.84% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.85% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.88% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.89% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.89% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.90% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.92% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.94% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.94% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.94% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.94% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.94% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.95% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.96% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.98% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.00% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.01% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.02% Dividend International, PID
-1.02% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.03% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.05% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.06% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.06% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.07% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.07% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.08% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.08% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.08% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.10% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.12% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.12% Global 100, IOO
-1.13% Australia Index, EWA
-1.13% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.14% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.15% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.15% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.16% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.16% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.19% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.21% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.23% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.25% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.26% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.27% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.27% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.29% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.29% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.31% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.31% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.34% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.35% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.36% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.38% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.40% India PS, PIN
-1.40% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.41% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.48% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.48% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.50% Water Resources, PHO
-1.51% Energy Global, IXC
-1.53% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.57% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.58% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.63% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.64% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.70% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.71% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.72% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.81% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.82% Emerging Markets, EEM
-1.87% France Index, EWQ
-1.88% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.92% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.00% Canada Index, EWC
-2.01% Technology DJ US, IYW
-2.01% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.16% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.22% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.28% Germany Index, EWG
-2.30% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.52% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-2.55% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.61% Russia MV, RSX
-2.61% South Korea Index, EWY
-2.61% Austria Index, EWO
-2.77% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.85% Italy Index, EWI
-3.06% Networking, IGN
-3.16% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-3.30% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-3.33% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.40% Spain Index, EWP
