Absolute prices of the following major Stock Sectors fell below 50-day SMAs on 5/14/10 and are now neutral: Consumer Discretionary, Industrial, and Utilities.

Absolute prices of the following major Stock Sectors fell below 200-day SMAs on 5/14/10 and remain neutral: Energy, Health Care, and Materials.

Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral.

Materials Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 10-month lows on 5/14/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below 3-month lows on 5/14/10 and remains neutral.

CRB Index of commodity prices fell below 3-month lows, tangibly demonstrating weakness for the intermediate term.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 but remains above its 200-day SMA and, therefore, is now neutral. This implies that investors are choosing somewhat less inflation protection.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved further above 12-month highs on 5/14/10 and remains bullish.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.93% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
2.55% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
4.28% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
0.90% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
1.98% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
2.75% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1.47% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
4.65% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
3.65% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
3.68% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.94% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
1.55% , YHOO , YAHOO
1.74% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.84% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
1.88% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
0.70% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
0.96% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
0.36% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.15% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.65% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.11% , CLX , CLOROX
0.34% , ACV , Alberto-Culver Co.
0.03% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
0.13% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.29% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.18% , TGT , TARGET

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.00% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-4.96% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-3.32% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-1.13% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
-3.73% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-5.26% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.60% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-11.54% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-5.20% , AFL , AFLAC
-4.32% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-6.76% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-5.07% , AXP , AMERICAN EXPRESS
-4.71% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-7.33% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-4.28% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-3.74% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-3.06% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-2.44% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-2.75% , PWJ , Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
-2.12% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
-3.60% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-2.62% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
-5.78% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-4.26% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.46% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-5.49% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-4.10% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-3.11% , WAT , WATERS
-4.04% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-4.11% , AMP , Ameriprise Financial Inc.
-6.58% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-2.47% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-3.42% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
-4.91% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-2.53% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-4.79% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-2.30% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-4.06% , MET , METLIFE
-2.18% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.47% , PWY , Value SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWY

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral. Support 31.03. Resistance 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 18-month highs on 4/29/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral. Support 30.85, 28.44, and 28.15. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and remains neutral. Support 21.25 and 20.64. Resistance 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) crossed above its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLP continues to trade between 50-day and 200-day SMAs and remains neutral. Support 26.99, 26.53, and 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLF price fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and remains neutral. Support 14.87 and 14.56. Resistance 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose above 6-week highs on 5/7/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price of XLU fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral. Support 29.61, 28.68, and 25.76. Resistance 30.59, 30.91, 31.64 and 32.08.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 10-month lows on 5/14/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Support 30.66 and 29.48. Resistance 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 1-month lows on 5/12/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLE fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Support 54.29, 52.29, and 51.34. Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 18-month lows on 4/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLV fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Support 29.34, 28.53, and 27.96. Resistance 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell to a 12-month low on 5/6/10. EEM/SPY trend turned bearish on 4/16/10, according to strict moving average analysis. Absolute price of EEM fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 5/6/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of EFA fell below 10-month lows on 5/6/10 and is bearishly below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio crossed above its 50-day simple moving average on 5/12/10 thereby turning bullish again. Absolute price of the NASDAQ price fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and remains neutral.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) fell to a 5-month low on 4/14/10 but has stabilized somewhat since. IWF/IWD remains below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of IWF fell below 8-week lows on 5/6/10 and remains neutral.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 5/3/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of IWD fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and remains neutral.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) continued to move up on 5/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP is trading between 50-day and 200-day SMAs and is neutral.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 22 months on 5/12/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of OEX continues to trade between 50-day and 200-day SMAs and remains neutral.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) continued to move up on 5/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of IWM fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) continued to move up on 5/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of MDY fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below 3-month lows on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Oil appears to be in a correction phase for the short term. Longer term, Oil remains bullish. Support 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 78.81, 81.29, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price rose above previous all-time highs on 5/12/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend for the long term. Support 1184.4, 1156.2, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: none.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) remains neutral. Absolute price rose above 5-month highs on 5/10/10 and remains bullish.

Silver/Gold Ratio remains neutral with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Copper nearest futures price fell below the lows of the previous 3 months on 5/5/10, again confirming a bearish trend for the short-term. Copper entered a correction phase since peaking at 3.68 on 4/12/10. Longer term, Copper remains bullish. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.1285, 3.0055, and 2.811. Resistance 3.2675, 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price jumped up to a new 12-month high on 5/6/10. Support 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 124.16, and 125.03.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) remains neutral.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 but remains above its 200-day SMA and, therefore, is now neutral. This implies that investors are choosing somewhat less inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP also remains bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved further above 12-month highs on 5/14/10 and remains bullish. Support 83.07, 81.74, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 87.22 and 89.71.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 47.2% Bulls versus 24.7% Bears as of 5/12/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1.91, down from 2.99 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index rose to a 13-month high of 42.15 on 5/7/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index rose to a 13-month high of 42.03 on 5/7/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to .059 on 5/7/10, a low level that indicates bearish sentiment. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.80 on 5/7/10, a high level that indicates moderately bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price continues to trade between 50-day and 200-day SMAs and remains neutral. The S&P fell more than 8% from its peak on 4/23/10 at 1217.28 to its low on 5/7/10 at 1,110.88, based on closing prices. Minor corrections of between 5% and 10% are typical in bull markets. Support 1135.13, 1094.15, 1065.79, 1044.50, 1029.38, 1019.95, 1012.42, and 1008.55. Resistance 1173.57, 1219.80, 1220.03 and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1135.13, high of 5/7/2010
1094.15, low of 5/7/2010
1065.79, low of 5/6/2010
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
1012.42, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

1.74% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.65% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.36% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.29% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.13% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.08% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.16% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.32% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.43% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.45% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.49% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.58% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.70% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.74% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.83% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.88% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.89% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.94% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.15% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.29% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.33% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.34% South Korea Index, EWY
-1.35% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.47% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.48% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.53% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.58% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.60% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.60% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.62% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.66% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.66% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.67% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.70% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.73% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.73% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.74% India PS, PIN
-1.74% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.77% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.78% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.78% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.79% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.79% Canada Index, EWC
-1.80% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.80% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.80% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.81% Singapore Index, EWS
-1.81% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.81% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.81% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.84% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.84% China 25 iS, FXI
-1.86% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.88% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.90% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.90% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.92% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-1.93% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.93% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.96% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.96% Networking, IGN
-1.97% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.97% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.99% Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.00% Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.00% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-2.00% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-2.05% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-2.06% Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.07% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.07% South Africa Index, EZA
-2.07% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.10% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-2.11% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.13% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-2.13% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-2.15% Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.16% Dividend International, PID
-2.18% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.20% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-2.21% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.27% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.29% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-2.30% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.32% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-2.32% MidCap Russell, IWR
-2.34% Financial Preferred, PGF
-2.34% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-2.35% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-2.35% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.36% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-2.37% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-2.41% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-2.43% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.44% Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.44% Energy Global, IXC
-2.46% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.47% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.49% Global 100, IOO
-2.53% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.55% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.59% Water Resources, PHO
-2.60% Financial SPDR, XLF
-2.63% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-2.63% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.71% Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.74% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.75% Russia MV, RSX
-2.76% Mexico Index, EWW
-2.77% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.78% Austria Index, EWO
-2.80% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.82% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.84% EAFE Index, EFA
-2.85% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.85% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.86% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.87% Financial DJ US, IYF
-2.99% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-3.03% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-3.03% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-3.09% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-3.13% Germany Index, EWG
-3.17% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-3.23% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-3.27% European VIPERs, VGK
-3.27% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-3.29% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-3.37% Australia Index, EWA
-3.46% Belgium Index, EWK
-3.65% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-4.26% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-4.30% France Index, EWQ
-4.71% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-4.96% Italy Index, EWI
-5.79% Spain Index, EWP