Tuesday, January 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are firmer U.S. Treasuries and a stronger U.S. dollar.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
I got a dispatch from an old industry friend recently. He’s been studying the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders data for decades. His note said there was one very distinct thing in recent COT data that has stood out to him: commercials were buying U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar, and selling most commodities. For those unfamiliar with the COT reports, the commercials are the 800-pound gorilla in the room. If you’d like to read more about the COT reports, I wrote a feature story on them a while back. You can email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll attach and email the story back to you.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. Bears have gained some fresh downside near-term technical momentum recently.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,081.00 and then at 1,075.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,095.80 and then at 1,100.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,098.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,812.00 and then at 1,820.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,785.00 and then at 1,775.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,805.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,100 and then more stops just below support at 10,050. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,150 and then at Monday’s high of 10,205. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,171
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are higher in early trading today. Bulls have upside near-term technical momentum.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh five-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 118 7/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 6/32 and then at 119 8/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 25/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32–lifetime high
122 21/32–Previous Month’s high
119 1/32–second pivot point resistance
118 23/32–previous day’s high
118 21/32–first pivot point resistance
118 21/32–100-day moving average
118 14/32–4-day moving average
118 12/32–pivot point
118 10/32–previous day’s close
118 2/32–previous day’s low
118 –first pivot point support
117 23/32–second pivot point support
117 17/32–9-day moving average
116 16/32–18-day moving average
114 26/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh five-week high overnight. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.07.0 and then at 118.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.21.0 and then at 117.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.21.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32–lifetime high
119 31/32–previous month’s high
118 2/32–second pivot point resistance
117 28/32–first pivot point resistance
117 28/32–previous day’s high
117 23/32–previous day’s close
117 23/32–4-day moving average
117 23/32–pivot point
117 17/32–first pivot point support
117 17/32–previous day’s low
117 12/32–second pivot point support
117 8/32–9-day moving average
117 4/32–100-day moving average
116 17/32–18-day moving average
114 28/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. A minor bullish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The bulls have some upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 78.73 and then at last week’s high of 79.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 78.50 and then at today’s low of 78.23. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.99. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The March Euro is lower in early electronic trading. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Bears have some downside near-term technical momentum. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4065 and then at last week’s low of 1.4027. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4100 and then at 1.4150. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4240. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today, amid the stronger U.S. dollar index. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 1,100.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,103.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $1,088.00 and then at $1,080.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,106.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls have faded recently. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $75.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $75.39. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $73.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $76.18. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are in a bearish posture for the grains today, as crude oil and U.S. stock index futures prices are lower, while the U.S. dollar index is higher. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Significant to serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the grain futures markets recently.
