Deutsche Bank AG, DB, fell below its lows of the previous 3 years.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the past 18 months on 7/24/12, thereby confirming its preexisting uptrend.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its highs of the previous 2 years on 7/24/12, reconfirming its preexisting major bullish trend. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size.

Bonds, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) and iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) both rose to new highs, thereby confirming preexisting major uptrends.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) reconfirmed a bearish major trend when it fell below its lows of the previous 9 years on 7/24/12.

The absolute prices of the following country stock index ETFs are demonstrating clear signs of severe stress:
France, EWQ, fell below its lows of the previous 3 years.
Austria, EWO, fell below its lows of the previous 3 years.
Spain, EWP, fell below its lows of the previous 9 years.
Italy, EWI, fell below its lows of the previous 15 years.
China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ, fell below its lows of the previous 3 years.

The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,338.31) fell 12.21 points or 0.90% on Tuesday, for its second largest daily loss in 4 weeks. SPX broke down below a 7-week trendline.

Weighing a wide variety of indicators, and projecting out weeks and months ahead, underlying market conditions suggest that downside risk still may exceed upside potential for the stock market. Choosing safety over risk appears to be the most reasonable approach.

For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report —
click here.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.

Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).

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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1332.80 50-day SMA
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1315.22, 200-day SMA
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the past 18 months on 7/24/12, thereby confirming its preexisting uptrend. UUP remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.78, 22.38, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.

CRB Commodity Price Index remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) has been rising for 5 weeks but remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. The 50-200 spread has been narrowing for 3 weeks but there is still a substantial gap between these SMAs.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically neutral on 7/16/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. USO remains far below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day remains far below its 200-day SMA. Support 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.84, 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 159.20, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/9/12, turning systematically bearish again. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 6/28/12, thereby confirming its preexisting major bearish trend. SLV remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 27.98, 28.26, 29.02, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 6/28/12, reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 7/23/12, thereby turning systematically bearish again. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA remains below its 200-day SMA. In addition, JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.33% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
7.33% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
4.07% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
3.61% , CR , CRANE
5.94% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
1.17% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
3.32% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
2.18% , EMC , EMC
0.48% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.02% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
2.09% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.43% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
0.77% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
1.03% , KEY , KEYCORP
0.56% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
0.79% , UIS , UNISYS
0.86% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.79% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
1.53% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
1.33% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
1.01% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
1.62% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.82% , JCP , JC PENNEY
0.56% , PCAR , PACCAR
0.46% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
1.71% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
1.06% , SPG , SIMON PROP GRP
1.74% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.56% , WAG , WALGREEN
0.66% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
0.72% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
1.41% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
0.23% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-24.53% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-29.05% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
-12.75% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-8.09% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-1.67% , IGV , Software, IGV
-4.22% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-1.35% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-4.63% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
-5.91% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-2.68% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-7.52% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-9.94% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-3.97% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
-3.84% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-1.55% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.12% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.17% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-3.31% , ZION , ZIONS
-1.27% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
-2.00% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
-1.36% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-2.10% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
-1.09% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-2.12% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-3.69% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
-2.83% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-2.81% , AES , AES
-1.94% , TE , TECO ENERGY
-1.78% , FDX , FEDEX
-4.24% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-2.69% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-2.94% , A , AGILENT TECH
-1.47% , MDY , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.88% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.79% Singapore Index, EWS
0.79% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.48% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.48% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.45% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.32% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.31% India PS, PIN
0.30% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.19% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.16% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.14% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.12% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.06% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.04% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.03% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.11% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.19% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.22% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.26% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.28% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.32% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.32% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.34% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.36% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.37% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.37% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.38% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.40% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.40% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.43% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.43% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.44% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.44% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.47% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.47% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.53% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.56% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.56% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.59% Australia Index, EWA
-0.59% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.60% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.61% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.61% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.63% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.64% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.66% Water Resources, PHO
-0.67% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.74% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.75% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.78% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.79% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.79% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.79% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.80% Russia MV, RSX
-0.81% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.83% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.83% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.84% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.85% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.85% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.86% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.87% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.87% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.88% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.88% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.89% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.90% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.90% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.90% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.91% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.93% Global 100, IOO
-0.93% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.93% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.94% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.95% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.96% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.96% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.97% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.98% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.98% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.02% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.05% Canada Index, EWC
-1.08% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.09% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.09% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.09% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.09% EAFE Index, EFA
-1.11% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.11% Dividend International, PID
-1.11% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.12% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.13% Austria Index, EWO
-1.16% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.17% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.17% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.17% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.18% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.19% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.20% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.21% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.22% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.26% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.30% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.31% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.31% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.31% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.31% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.34% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.41% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.42% Germany Index, EWG
-1.43% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.43% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.43% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.44% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.46% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.46% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.47% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.48% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.52% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.55% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.55% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.59% France Index, EWQ
-1.60% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.64% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.67% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.67% Energy Global, IXC
-1.70% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.79% Networking, IGN
-1.85% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.87% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.11% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.46% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.22% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-3.93% Italy Index, EWI
-4.08% Spain Index, EWP