What a morning we are having already!
At 5:49 I posted to our Members: “Nice opportunity to short the RUT at 600.50 in the futures...” We had two plays running and the Russell was kind enough to drop all the way to our $599 target, which may not seem like a big deal but it’s $1 per penny per contract on the futures so that more than pays for breakfast already. 600, if you recall, has long been our watch level on the Russell and we get very interested in the action around that level. 10,500 was a good short on the Dow too but we missed that one by an hour but maybe we’ll get another poke at both this morning as Jobs are very likely to sound bullish.
What Phil? You may ask. How can you suddenly belive jobs will be bullish? I don’t, but I do believe the MSM lies to you and that no one will mention the fact that the jobs numbers are based on models that give added weight to prior years and now we are comping against the Lehman collapse of last year when 610,000 jobs were lost in November (unadjusted), which was the first November decline since 2001 and the worst monthly decline since 1939. So we have a situation in which idiot economists (who apparently have no clue how these nubers work) are estimating 125,000 job losses in tomorrow’s NFP, but there will be an offset of at least 75,000 jobs from last year that can bring that figure down to 50,000 or less. Today’s weekly number will be similarly affected.
The same seasonal adjustment will affect October as well and we may get a downward revision there as well so beware of “spectacular” jobs numbers this morning, as I said to members yesterday – that is excitement we are going to want to sell into. Also on today’s sunshine economic calendar is revised Q3 Productivity (if you liked the numbers the first time, you’ll love them when we act like they are new today), ISM Services and Retail Sales. Obama convenes his “jobs summit” at 1:30 and then says something probably right at the market close like “we have a plan” and then we can rally off that.
Officially Cyber Monday sales were up 5%. Unfortunately, on-line sales make up just 6% of all retail sales so 5% of 6% is 0.3% and that’s the contribution to retail sales this year…
