Two days ago, on my last entry, I suggested it was a good time to buy puts on gold. I also had 547 1/2 as a target in CZ (December Corn). I get a few emails when i am early on a call or opinion. Last night’s low in CZ was 545 1/4, and then we bounced higher 8 cents from that low to settle at 552 3/4. next stop is 529 5/8. if the wheels really come off, 511 is a target for CZ.
China talking about controlling inflation overnight. Generally, this spurred a sell off in commodities and another hic up lower for the US Dollar. Cotton and Rice seem to have finally found the price high enough to get people not to want to speculate with new longs. The last month of incredible rally has been met with the third limit down move in those commodities.
Informa came out with it first guesstimate of acres for 2011. Bullish beans, bearish corn and cotton, sharply neutral for wheat.
I am reminded of that song in the Wizard of OZ, where the scarecrow sings, If I Only had a brain… A good call is a good call. I have learned the hard way that an analysis which results in a profit is something to be enjoyed for the moment, and then filed away. The best traders have very very short memories.
Getting all excited about a good trade is as dangerous as entering into a prolonged period of self criticism in the wake of a losing trade or a series of trades that resulted in risk management controlled losses.
Enough Said.
Watch out today. Its Friday and we are over due for a down side correction across the board.
Good Trading
