Monday we looked at daily bars of TLT versus the Lazy Man 5.  Today we gander at monthly bars of TLT versus SPY (line).  Going back to 2004 we note Monday’s price of $96.50 has consistently provided a line in the sand. Nov 08 and June 10 ushered in 2 variations to the extreme, although the case in 2010 was not nearly as divergent as the 08 situation. The current picture suggests SPY down, TLT up with a cross likely in the $102 area ….but there are intervening factors alluded to on Monday that may derail that scenario. Tomorrow we’ll examine the technical picture much closer using Project Z’s analysis of TLT and VIX.