Friday, February 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a stronger U.S. dollar index and a lower U.S. stock index futures. China surprised the markets heading into a long U.S. holiday weekend by raising a key interest rate by 50 basis points.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

If the market you are trading or following posts a weekly high or low close on a Friday, it’s near-term technically significant. With the three-day U.S. holiday weekend this weekend, today’s closes will be extra important, technically. Also technically important are monthly and quarterly high or low closes.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading today. Trading has been choppy this week. The indexes are still in four-week-old downtrends on the daily bar chart.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,066.40 and then at this week’s low of 1,053.20. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,079.60 and then at 1,085.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,064.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,779.85 and then at the February high of 1,792.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,750.00 and then at 1,740.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,762.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,000 and then more stops just below support at Thursday’s low of 9,945. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,100 and then at Thursday’s high of 10,128. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,975

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today, on a short-covering bounce from recent selling pressure and amid the lower U.S. stock indexes. The bulls need to show more power very soon.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 8/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 26/32 and then at 118 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 4/32

MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

136 23/32–lifetime high
119 6/32–Previous Month’s high
118 19/32–100-day moving average
118 13/32–second pivot point resistance
118 9/32–18-day moving average
118 8/32–9-day moving average
118 1/32–4-day moving average
117 27/32–previous day’s high
117 26/32–first pivot point resistance
117 9/32–pivot point
117 8/32–previous day’s close
116 23/32–previous day’s low
116 22/32–first pivot point support
116 5/32–second pivot point support
114 22/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.04.0 and then at 118.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.24.0 and then at 117.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.14.0

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

123 13/32–lifetime high
118 9/32–second pivot point resistance
118 9/32–previous month’s high
118 3/32–4-day moving average
118 3/32–9-day moving average
118 1/32–previous day’s high
118 1/32–first pivot point resistance
117 29/32–18-day moving average
117 24/32–pivot point
117 24/32–previous day’s close
117 16/32–previous day’s low
117 16/32–first pivot point support
117 10/32–100-day moving average
117 7/32–second pivot point support
114 31/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading today, and hit a fresh seven-month high overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.83 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.50 and then at the overnight low of 80.07. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.08. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0

The March Euro is sharply lower in early electronic trading, and hit a fresh nine-month low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3531 and then at 1.3500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3600 and then at 1.3650. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

GOLD

Gold is lower in early dealings today, amid the stronger U.S. dollar. Prices are still in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,090.00 and then at this week’s high of  1,097.70. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,078.20 and then at $1,070.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $75.00 and then just above resistance at this week’s high of $75.69. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $73.50 and then at $73.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $75.22. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are in a bearish posture for the grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is stronger, while crude oil, gold and the U.S. stock indexes are lower. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as the markets are still in downtrends on the daily charts.