Investors Intelligence Sentiment shows that stock market newsletter advisors are too bullish. As of 8/29/12, there were 48.9% Bulls and 24.5% Bears. This 48.9% Bulls is the largest percentage of Bulls since 4/4/12, just 2 days after the SPX high close for the year and the beginning of an 11% decline for the S&P 500 index stretching over 60 days.
The technical condition of the stock market does not support the optimism of the bullish majority of stock investors and traders.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,410.49) rose 1.19 points or 0.08% on Wednesday.
NYSE volume fell 4% on Wednesday and was 34% below its 200-day SMA. Volume has been running near the lowest levels of the year since 8/8/12, possibly reflecting diminishing enthusiasm for stocks, as well as summer vacations.
With the stock price indexes far above their 4-year lows and still very close to the top end of their 4-year price range, downside risk may exceed upside potential for the stock market. Choosing safety over risk appears to be the most reasonable approach for conservative traders and investors.
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Hedge funds and equity mutual funds both lost money last year, 2011, and some are down again this year as well.
Meanwhile, one money manager made gains for 5 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1426.68, high of 8/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1398.04, low of 8/24/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1389.07, Fibonacci 78.6% of April-June 2012 range
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1374.03, 50-day SMA
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1362.93, Fibonacci 61.8% of April-June 2012 range
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1344.56, Fibonacci 50% of April-June 2012 range
1340.34, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011-12 range
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1336.54, 200-day SMA
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1326.19, Fibonacci 38.2% of April-June 2012 range
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1303.47, Fibonacci 23.6% of April-June 2012 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1289.59, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011-12 range
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1248.58, Fibonacci 50.0% of 2011-12 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1207.56, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011-12 range
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1149.16, Fibonacci 78.6% R of 2011-12 range
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) appears to be “hammering out a bottom”. UUP remains systematically neutral: below its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has stayed above its 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 22.30, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index remains systematically neutral: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/13/12. High food prices could bring trouble for the general economy because more consumer spending for food means less consumer spending available for other goods and services.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) turned systematically neutral on 7/16/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. USO remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day remains far below its 200-day SMA. Support 34.34, 32.45, 31.40, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/22/12 but remains systematically neutral. GLD remains above its 50-day SMA, but its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 4/17/12. Support: 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/16/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below its 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 8/3/12, thereby turning systematically neutral. SLV also rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/24/12, but its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/28/12 but remains systematically neutral. SLV/GLD remains above its 50-day SMA, but its 50-day SMA has stayed below its 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/21/12, thereby turning systematically neutral again for the short term. Longer term, JJC fell to its lowest level in 8 months on 8/2/12, thereby confirming its major bearish trend. JJC price remains below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA every day since 5/31/12. In addition, JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since 12/31/10. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this relative weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.68% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
11.04% , SEE , SEALED AIR
4.53% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
3.68% , JCP , JC PENNEY
0.55% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
1.44% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
2.95% , DLX , DELUXE
3.58% , FHN , First Horizon National
3.18% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
2.26% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
1.85% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
0.36% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
0.49% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
0.87% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
0.98% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
1.88% , BC , BRUNSWICK
1.70% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
0.24% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
1.28% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.76% , LOW , LOWES
1.97% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
0.64% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
1.23% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
1.59% , GOOG , Google
0.39% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
1.23% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
0.33% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.87% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
1.86% , TJX , TJX
1.17% , EBAY , EBAY
0.91% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
1.90% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
1.80% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.96% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-0.82% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-2.72% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-0.42% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.69% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-3.03% , X , US STEEL CORP
-2.59% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-2.32% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-1.62% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.30% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.43% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.34% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-1.99% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-1.85% , ITT , ITT INDS
-3.30% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-1.33% , INTC , INTEL
-6.24% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
-0.23% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.10% , TROW , T ROWE PRICE GP
-1.67% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-0.16% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-0.65% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.77% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-0.75% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
-1.51% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-1.39% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-1.91% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-0.47% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-1.22% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.76% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.15% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.64% , CBE , COOPER INDS STK A
-1.42% , KO , COCA COLA
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.83% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.71% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.64% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.61% Singapore Index, EWS
0.58% South Korea Index, EWY
0.55% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.49% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.48% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.45% Networking, IGN
0.43% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.41% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.38% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.38% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.36% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.34% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.33% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.33% Japan Index, EWJ
0.32% South Africa Index, EZA
0.32% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.32% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.31% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.29% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.28% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.28% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.23% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.23% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.23% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.23% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.23% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.23% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.22% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.20% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.20% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.20% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.18% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.18% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.18% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.17% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.17% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.16% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.16% Water Resources, PHO
0.15% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.15% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.14% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.14% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.12% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.12% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.12% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.11% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.11% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.10% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.10% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.10% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.10% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.08% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.08% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.08% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.08% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.07% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.06% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.05% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.05% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.05% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.04% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.04% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.03% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.03% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.03% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.02% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.02% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.02% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.00% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.00% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.03% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.03% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.06% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.06% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.08% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.10% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.10% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.11% Canada Index, EWC
-0.11% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.12% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.16% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.16% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.16% Global 100, IOO
-0.18% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.18% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.18% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.19% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.21% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.22% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.23% Germany Index, EWG
-0.23% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.23% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.25% Australia Index, EWA
-0.26% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.28% Austria Index, EWO
-0.29% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.29% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.31% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.32% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.33% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.34% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.34% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.34% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.34% Italy Index, EWI
-0.41% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.41% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.42% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.44% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.46% Spain Index, EWP
-0.48% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.49% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.52% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.53% Dividend International, PID
-0.55% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.56% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.56% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.57% Energy Global, IXC
-0.58% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.60% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.65% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.65% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.65% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.67% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.68% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.69% Russia MV, RSX
-0.76% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.77% India PS, PIN
-0.96% France Index, EWQ
-1.01% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.08% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.15% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.22% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.30% Latin Am 40, ILF
