Based on prices as of the close on Friday, April 15, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 139 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Biotech SPDR, XBI
96 Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
96 Energy VIPERs, VDE
95 Commodity Tracking, DBC
94 Energy SPDR, XLE
94 South Korea Index, EWY
93 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, April 15, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Silver Miners Global X, SIL
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Biotech SPDR, XBI
96 Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
96 Energy VIPERs, VDE
95 Commodity Tracking, DBC
94 Energy SPDR, XLE
94 South Korea Index, EWY
93 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
92 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
92 Energy DJ, IYE
91 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
90 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
89 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
89 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
88 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
87 Sweden Index, EWD
87 Indonesia MV, IDX
86 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
85 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
85 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
84 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
83 Energy Global, IXC
82 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
82 Germany Index, EWG
81 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
80 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
80 Russia MV, RSX
79 Microcap Russell, IWC
78 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
77 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
77 MidCap Russell, IWR
76 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
75 Australia Index, EWA
75 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
74 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
73 Austria Index, EWO
73 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
72 Industrial SPDR, XLI
71 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
70 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
70 Canada Index, EWC
69 Mexico Index, EWW
68 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
68 REIT Wilshire, RWR
67 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
66 Switzerland Index, EWL
65 Belgium Index, EWK
65 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
64 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
63 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
63 Netherlands Index, EWN
62 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
61 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
61 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
60 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
59 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
58 Emerging Markets, EEM
58 Materials SPDR, XLB
57 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
56 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
56 South Africa Index, EZA
55 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
54 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
54 Water Resources, PHO
53 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
52 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
51 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
51 EMU Europe Index, EZU
50 Malaysia Index, EWM
49 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
49 Growth VIPERs, VUG
48 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
47 France Index, EWQ
46 QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
46 Hong Kong Index, EWH
45 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
44 Singapore Index, EWS
44 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
43 Dividend International, PID
42 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
42 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
41 Value VIPERs, VTV
40 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
39 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
39 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
38 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
37 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
37 United Kingdom Index, EWU
36 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
35 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
35 Health Care SPDR, XLV
34 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
33 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
32 Taiwan Index, EWT
32 Italy Index, EWI
31 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
30 European VIPERs, VGK
30 Networking, IGN
29 Global 100, IOO
28 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
27 EAFE Index, EFA
27 Dividend SPDR, SDY
26 China 25 iS, FXI
25 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
25 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
24 Technology SPDR, XLK
23 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
23 Latin Am 40, ILF
22 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
21 Technology DJ US, IYW
20 Financials VIPERs, VFH
20 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
19 Spain Index, EWP
18 Financial DJ US, IYF
18 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
17 Brazil Index, EWZ
16 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
15 Financial SPDR, XLF
15 India Earnings WTree, EPI
14 Financial Preferred, PGF
13 Utilities SPDR, XLU
13 Financial Services DJ, IYG
12 Bond, TIPS, TIP
11 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
11 India PS, PIN
10 Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
9 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
8 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
8 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
7 Bond, Corp, LQD
6 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
6 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
5 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
4 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
4 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
3 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
2 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1 Japan Index, EWJ
