4-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 118 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
98 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
97 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
96 Russia MV, RSX
96 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
95 India Earnings WTree, EPI
94 Mexico Index, EWW
94 REIT Wilshire, RWR
93 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, April 9, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
98 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
97 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
96 Russia MV, RSX
96 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
95 India Earnings WTree, EPI
94 Mexico Index, EWW
94 REIT Wilshire, RWR
93 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
92 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
91 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
91 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
90 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
89 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
89 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
88 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
87 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
86 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
86 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
85 South Korea Index, EWY
84 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
84 South Africa Index, EZA
83 Malaysia Index, EWM
82 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
81 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
81 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
80 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
79 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
79 MidCap Russell, IWR
78 Microcap Russell, IWC
77 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
76 Latin Am 40, ILF
76 Australia Index, EWA
75 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
74 India PS, PIN
74 Industrial SPDR, XLI
73 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
72 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
71 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
71 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
70 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
69 Emerging Markets, EEM
69 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
68 Networking, IGN
67 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
66 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
66 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
65 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
64 Brazil Index, EWZ
64 Sweden Index, EWD
63 Technology DJ US, IYW
62 Canada Index, EWC
61 Financials VIPERs, VFH
61 Silver Trust iS, SLV
60 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
59 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
59 Financial DJ US, IYF
58 Financial Services DJ, IYG
57 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
56 Singapore Index, EWS
56 Growth VIPERs, VUG
55 Financial SPDR, XLF
54 Biotech SPDR, XBI
54 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
53 Materials SPDR, XLB
52 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
51 Technology SPDR, XLK
51 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
50 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
49 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
49 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
48 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
47 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
46 Dividend SPDR, SDY
46 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
45 Hong Kong Index, EWH
44 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
44 China 25 iS, FXI
43 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
42 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
41 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
41 Value VIPERs, VTV
40 Taiwan Index, EWT
39 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
39 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
38 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
37 Financial Preferred, PGF
36 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
36 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
35 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
34 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
34 Switzerland Index, EWL
33 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
32 Water Resources, PHO
31 Netherlands Index, EWN
31 Dividend International, PID
30 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
29 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
29 United Kingdom Index, EWU
28 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
27 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
26 Energy VIPERs, VDE
26 Energy SPDR, XLE
25 Health Care SPDR, XLV
24 EAFE Index, EFA
24 Global 100, IOO
23 Japan Index, EWJ
22 Energy Global, IXC
21 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
21 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
20 Energy DJ, IYE
19 Austria Index, EWO
19 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
18 Belgium Index, EWK
17 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
16 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
16 Germany Index, EWG
15 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
14 France Index, EWQ
14 European VIPERs, VGK
13 EMU Europe Index, EZU
12 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
11 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
11 Commodity Tracking, DBC
10 Bond, Corp, LQD
9 Utilities SPDR, XLU
9 Bond, TIPS, TIP
8 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
7 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
6 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
6 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
5 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
4 Spain Index, EWP
4 Italy Index, EWI
3 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
2 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
