Based on prices as of the close on Friday, August 13, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 101 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
94 REIT Wilshire, RWR
93 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, August 13, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
94 REIT Wilshire, RWR
93 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
92 Financial Preferred, PGF
91 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
91 Singapore Index, EWS
90 South Africa Index, EZA
89 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
89 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
88 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
87 Hong Kong Index, EWH
86 India PS, PIN
86 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
85 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
84 Taiwan Index, EWT
84 Silver Trust iS, SLV
83 South Korea Index, EWY
82 Bond, Corp, LQD
81 Latin Am 40, ILF
81 Emerging Markets, EEM
80 Mexico Index, EWW
79 Sweden Index, EWD
79 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
78 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
77 Utilities SPDR, XLU
76 Brazil Index, EWZ
76 Russia MV, RSX
75 Industrial SPDR, XLI
74 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
74 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
73 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
72 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
71 Bond, TIPS, TIP
71 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
70 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
69 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
69 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
68 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
67 Dividend SPDR, SDY
66 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
66 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
65 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
64 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
64 Dividend International, PID
63 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
62 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
61 MidCap Russell, IWR
61 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
60 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
59 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
59 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
58 United Kingdom Index, EWU
57 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
56 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
56 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
55 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
54 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
54 Switzerland Index, EWL
53 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
52 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
51 Materials SPDR, XLB
51 Biotech SPDR, XBI
50 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
49 Canada Index, EWC
49 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
48 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
47 China 25 iS, FXI
46 Growth VIPERs, VUG
46 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
45 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
44 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
44 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
43 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
42 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
41 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
41 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
40 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
39 Technology SPDR, XLK
39 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
38 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
37 Value VIPERs, VTV
36 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
36 Australia Index, EWA
35 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
34 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
34 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
33 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
32 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
31 Networking, IGN
31 Technology DJ US, IYW
30 European VIPERs, VGK
29 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
29 Health Care SPDR, XLV
28 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
27 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
26 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
26 Global 100, IOO
25 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
24 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
24 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
23 EAFE Index, EFA
22 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
21 Germany Index, EWG
21 Belgium Index, EWK
20 Energy VIPERs, VDE
19 Energy SPDR, XLE
19 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
18 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
17 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
16 Commodity Tracking, DBC
16 Financials VIPERs, VFH
15 Financial DJ US, IYF
14 Netherlands Index, EWN
14 Japan Index, EWJ
13 Energy DJ, IYE
12 Microcap Russell, IWC
11 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
11 Financial SPDR, XLF
10 Energy Global, IXC
9 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
9 Austria Index, EWO
8 EMU Europe Index, EZU
7 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
6 France Index, EWQ
6 Water Resources, PHO
5 Financial Services DJ, IYG
4 Spain Index, EWP
4 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
3 Italy Index, EWI
2 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
