Based on prices as of the close on Friday, August 20, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 105 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation.Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Indonesia MV, IDX
97 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
95 India Earnings WTree, EPI
94 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
94 Financial Preferred, PGF
93 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, August 20, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Indonesia MV, IDX
97 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
95 India Earnings WTree, EPI
94 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
94 Financial Preferred, PGF
93 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
92 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
91 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
91 Singapore Index, EWS
90 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
89 REIT Wilshire, RWR
89 India PS, PIN
88 South Korea Index, EWY
87 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
86 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
86 South Africa Index, EZA
85 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
84 Bond, Corp, LQD
84 Hong Kong Index, EWH
83 Taiwan Index, EWT
82 Emerging Markets, EEM
81 Latin Am 40, ILF
81 Mexico Index, EWW
80 Silver Trust iS, SLV
79 Brazil Index, EWZ
79 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
78 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
77 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
76 Russia MV, RSX
76 Sweden Index, EWD
75 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
74 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
74 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
73 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
72 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
71 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
71 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
70 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
69 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
69 Utilities SPDR, XLU
68 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
67 Bond, TIPS, TIP
66 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
66 Industrial SPDR, XLI
65 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
64 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
64 MidCap Russell, IWR
63 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
62 Switzerland Index, EWL
61 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
61 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
60 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
59 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
59 Canada Index, EWC
58 Dividend International, PID
57 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
56 Materials SPDR, XLB
56 China 25 iS, FXI
55 Dividend SPDR, SDY
54 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
54 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
53 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
52 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
51 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
51 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
50 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
49 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
49 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
48 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
47 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
46 Technology SPDR, XLK
46 Growth VIPERs, VUG
45 Networking, IGN
44 Australia Index, EWA
44 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
43 Technology DJ US, IYW
42 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
41 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
41 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
40 United Kingdom Index, EWU
39 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
39 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
38 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
37 Biotech SPDR, XBI
36 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
36 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
35 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
34 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
34 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
33 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
32 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
31 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
31 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
30 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
29 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
29 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
28 Value VIPERs, VTV
27 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
26 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
26 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
25 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
24 European VIPERs, VGK
24 Health Care SPDR, XLV
23 Japan Index, EWJ
22 EAFE Index, EFA
21 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
21 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
20 Global 100, IOO
19 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
19 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
18 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
17 Commodity Tracking, DBC
16 Belgium Index, EWK
16 Germany Index, EWG
15 Microcap Russell, IWC
14 Financials VIPERs, VFH
14 Energy VIPERs, VDE
13 Energy SPDR, XLE
12 Netherlands Index, EWN
11 Financial DJ US, IYF
11 Austria Index, EWO
10 Energy DJ, IYE
9 Financial SPDR, XLF
9 Energy Global, IXC
8 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
7 Water Resources, PHO
6 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
6 EMU Europe Index, EZU
5 France Index, EWQ
4 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
4 Financial Services DJ, IYG
3 Spain Index, EWP
2 Italy Index, EWI
1 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
