Based on prices as of the close on Friday, December 10, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 125 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
97 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
95 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
94 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
94 Indonesia MV, IDX
93 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, December 10, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
97 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
95 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
94 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
94 Indonesia MV, IDX
93 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
92 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
91 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
91 Networking, IGN
90 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
89 South Africa Index, EZA
89 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
88 Taiwan Index, EWT
87 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
86 Microcap Russell, IWC
86 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
85 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
84 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
84 Mexico Index, EWW
83 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
82 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
81 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
81 South Korea Index, EWY
80 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
79 Energy VIPERs, VDE
79 Russia MV, RSX
78 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
77 Energy SPDR, XLE
76 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
76 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
75 MidCap Russell, IWR
74 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
74 Hong Kong Index, EWH
73 Energy DJ, IYE
72 Malaysia Index, EWM
71 Sweden Index, EWD
71 Water Resources, PHO
70 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
69 Industrial SPDR, XLI
69 Materials SPDR, XLB
68 Technology DJ US, IYW
67 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
66 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
66 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
65 Growth VIPERs, VUG
64 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
64 Singapore Index, EWS
63 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
62 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
61 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
61 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
60 Canada Index, EWC
59 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
59 Technology SPDR, XLK
58 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
57 Australia Index, EWA
56 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
56 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
55 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
54 Emerging Markets, EEM
54 Germany Index, EWG
53 Latin Am 40, ILF
52 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
51 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
51 Energy Global, IXC
50 Austria Index, EWO
49 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
49 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
48 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
47 Commodity Tracking, DBC
46 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
46 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
45 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
44 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
44 Switzerland Index, EWL
43 United Kingdom Index, EWU
42 REIT Wilshire, RWR
41 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
41 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
40 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
39 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
39 Biotech SPDR, XBI
38 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
37 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
36 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
36 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
35 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
34 Value VIPERs, VTV
34 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
33 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
32 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
31 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
31 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
30 Financials VIPERs, VFH
29 Dividend International, PID
29 Financial DJ US, IYF
28 European VIPERs, VGK
27 Global 100, IOO
26 EAFE Index, EFA
26 Financial SPDR, XLF
25 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
24 Brazil Index, EWZ
24 Dividend SPDR, SDY
23 Financial Services DJ, IYG
22 India PS, PIN
21 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
21 India Earnings WTree, EPI
20 Japan Index, EWJ
19 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
19 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
18 Netherlands Index, EWN
17 Financial Preferred, PGF
16 Health Care SPDR, XLV
16 Belgium Index, EWK
15 France Index, EWQ
14 China 25 iS, FXI
14 EMU Europe Index, EZU
13 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
12 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
11 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
11 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
10 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
9 Utilities SPDR, XLU
9 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
8 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
7 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
6 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
6 Bond, Corp, LQD
5 Bond, TIPS, TIP
4 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
4 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
3 Italy Index, EWI
2 Spain Index, EWP
1 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
