Based on prices as of the close on Friday, December 17, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 123 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
98 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
97 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
96 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
96 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
95 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
94 Taiwan Index, EWT
94 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
93 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, December 17, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
98 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
97 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
96 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
96 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
95 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
94 Taiwan Index, EWT
94 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
93 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
92 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
91 Networking, IGN
91 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
90 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
89 South Africa Index, EZA
89 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
88 Microcap Russell, IWC
87 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
86 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
86 Mexico Index, EWW
85 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
84 Sweden Index, EWD
84 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
83 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
82 Russia MV, RSX
81 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
81 South Korea Index, EWY
80 Energy VIPERs, VDE
79 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
79 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
78 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
77 Water Resources, PHO
76 MidCap Russell, IWR
76 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
75 Energy SPDR, XLE
74 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
74 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
73 Energy DJ, IYE
72 Materials SPDR, XLB
71 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
71 Industrial SPDR, XLI
70 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
69 Malaysia Index, EWM
69 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
68 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
67 Technology DJ US, IYW
66 Growth VIPERs, VUG
66 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
65 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
64 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
64 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
63 Indonesia MV, IDX
62 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
61 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
61 Hong Kong Index, EWH
60 Australia Index, EWA
59 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
59 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
58 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
57 Canada Index, EWC
56 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
56 Technology SPDR, XLK
55 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
54 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
54 Latin Am 40, ILF
53 Biotech SPDR, XBI
52 Singapore Index, EWS
51 Emerging Markets, EEM
51 Energy Global, IXC
50 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
49 Commodity Tracking, DBC
49 Germany Index, EWG
48 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
47 Switzerland Index, EWL
46 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
46 Austria Index, EWO
45 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
44 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
44 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
43 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
42 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
41 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
41 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
40 Value VIPERs, VTV
39 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
39 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
38 India Earnings WTree, EPI
37 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
36 United Kingdom Index, EWU
36 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
35 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
34 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
34 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
33 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
32 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
31 Japan Index, EWJ
31 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
30 India PS, PIN
29 Dividend SPDR, SDY
29 REIT Wilshire, RWR
28 EAFE Index, EFA
27 Global 100, IOO
26 Brazil Index, EWZ
26 Financials VIPERs, VFH
25 Dividend International, PID
24 European VIPERs, VGK
24 Financial DJ US, IYF
23 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
22 Financial SPDR, XLF
21 Health Care SPDR, XLV
21 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
20 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
19 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
19 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
18 Financial Services DJ, IYG
17 Netherlands Index, EWN
16 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
16 France Index, EWQ
15 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
14 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
14 EMU Europe Index, EZU
13 Belgium Index, EWK
12 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
11 Utilities SPDR, XLU
11 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
10 China 25 iS, FXI
9 Financial Preferred, PGF
9 Bond, TIPS, TIP
8 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
7 Bond, Corp, LQD
6 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
6 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
5 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
4 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
4 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
3 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
2 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Spain Index, EWP
