Based on prices as of the close on Friday, December 31, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 123 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
98 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
97 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
96 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
96 South Korea Index, EWY
95 South Africa Index, EZA
94 Taiwan Index, EWT
94 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
93 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, December 31, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
98 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
97 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
96 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
96 South Korea Index, EWY
95 South Africa Index, EZA
94 Taiwan Index, EWT
94 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
93 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
92 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
91 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
91 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
90 Sweden Index, EWD
89 Microcap Russell, IWC
89 Energy SPDR, XLE
88 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
87 Mexico Index, EWW
86 Russia MV, RSX
86 Energy VIPERs, VDE
85 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
84 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
84 Networking, IGN
83 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
82 Energy DJ, IYE
81 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
81 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
80 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
79 Indonesia MV, IDX
79 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
78 Materials SPDR, XLB
77 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
76 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
76 Malaysia Index, EWM
75 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
74 MidCap Russell, IWR
74 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
73 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
72 Austria Index, EWO
71 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
71 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
70 Commodity Tracking, DBC
69 Industrial SPDR, XLI
69 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
68 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
67 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
66 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
66 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
65 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
64 Latin Am 40, ILF
64 Energy Global, IXC
63 Canada Index, EWC
62 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
61 Emerging Markets, EEM
61 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
60 Growth VIPERs, VUG
59 Singapore Index, EWS
59 Technology DJ US, IYW
58 Switzerland Index, EWL
57 Water Resources, PHO
56 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
56 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
55 Hong Kong Index, EWH
54 Australia Index, EWA
54 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
53 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
52 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
51 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
51 REIT Wilshire, RWR
50 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
49 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
49 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
48 Technology SPDR, XLK
47 India Earnings WTree, EPI
46 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
46 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
45 India PS, PIN
44 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
44 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
43 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
42 Biotech SPDR, XBI
41 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
41 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
40 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
39 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
39 Germany Index, EWG
38 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
37 Value VIPERs, VTV
36 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
36 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
35 Japan Index, EWJ
34 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
34 Brazil Index, EWZ
33 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
32 Financials VIPERs, VFH
31 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
31 United Kingdom Index, EWU
30 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
29 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
29 Dividend International, PID
28 Financial DJ US, IYF
27 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
26 Financial SPDR, XLF
26 EAFE Index, EFA
25 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
24 Netherlands Index, EWN
24 Financial Services DJ, IYG
23 Dividend SPDR, SDY
22 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
21 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
21 Global 100, IOO
20 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
19 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
19 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
18 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
17 Health Care SPDR, XLV
16 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
16 France Index, EWQ
15 European VIPERs, VGK
14 Belgium Index, EWK
14 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
13 Financial Preferred, PGF
12 China 25 iS, FXI
11 EMU Europe Index, EZU
11 Utilities SPDR, XLU
10 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
9 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
9 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
8 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
7 Bond, TIPS, TIP
6 Bond, Corp, LQD
6 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
5 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
4 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
4 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
3 Italy Index, EWI
2 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1 Spain Index, EWP
