Based on prices as of the close on Friday, February 11, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 122 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
98 Networking, IGN
97 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
96 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
95 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
94 Energy SPDR, XLE
94 Energy VIPERs, VDE
93 Energy DJ, IYE
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, February 11, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
98 Networking, IGN
97 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
96 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
95 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
94 Energy SPDR, XLE
94 Energy VIPERs, VDE
93 Energy DJ, IYE
92 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
91 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
91 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
90 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
89 Industrial SPDR, XLI
89 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
88 Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
87 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
86 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
86 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
85 MidCap Russell, IWR
84 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
84 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
83 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
82 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
81 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
81 Microcap Russell, IWC
80 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
79 Technology DJ US, IYW
79 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
78 Energy Global, IXC
77 Russia MV, RSX
76 Materials SPDR, XLB
76 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
75 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
74 Sweden Index, EWD
74 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
73 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
72 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
71 Germany Index, EWG
71 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
70 Water Resources, PHO
69 Growth VIPERs, VUG
69 Technology SPDR, XLK
68 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
67 Commodity Tracking, DBC
66 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
66 REIT Wilshire, RWR
65 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
64 Austria Index, EWO
64 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
63 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
62 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
61 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
61 Canada Index, EWC
60 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
59 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
59 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
58 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
57 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
56 Value VIPERs, VTV
56 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
55 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
54 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
54 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
53 Financials VIPERs, VFH
52 Financial SPDR, XLF
51 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
51 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
50 Mexico Index, EWW
49 Financial DJ US, IYF
49 Financial Services DJ, IYG
48 South Korea Index, EWY
47 United Kingdom Index, EWU
46 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
46 Netherlands Index, EWN
45 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
44 Taiwan Index, EWT
44 Australia Index, EWA
43 Global 100, IOO
42 Japan Index, EWJ
41 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
41 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
40 EAFE Index, EFA
39 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
39 Malaysia Index, EWM
38 France Index, EWQ
37 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
36 EMU Europe Index, EZU
36 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
35 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
34 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
34 Italy Index, EWI
33 Dividend SPDR, SDY
32 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
31 Dividend International, PID
31 Switzerland Index, EWL
30 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
29 European VIPERs, VGK
29 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
28 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
27 Hong Kong Index, EWH
26 Biotech SPDR, XBI
26 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
25 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
24 Belgium Index, EWK
24 Health Care SPDR, XLV
23 Singapore Index, EWS
22 South Africa Index, EZA
21 Emerging Markets, EEM
21 Latin Am 40, ILF
20 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
19 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
19 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
18 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
17 Financial Preferred, PGF
16 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
16 Utilities SPDR, XLU
15 Spain Index, EWP
14 Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
14 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
13 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
12 Indonesia MV, IDX
11 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
11 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
10 Brazil Index, EWZ
9 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
9 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
8 Bond, Corp, LQD
7 China 25 iS, FXI
6 Bond, TIPS, TIP
6 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
5 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
4 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
4 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
3 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
2 India PS, PIN
1 India Earnings WTree, EPI
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
