Based on prices as of the close on Friday, January 14, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 119 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
98 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
97 Networking, IGN
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
96 South Korea Index, EWY
95 Russia MV, RSX
94 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
94 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
93 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, January 14, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
98 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
97 Networking, IGN
96 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
96 South Korea Index, EWY
95 Russia MV, RSX
94 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
94 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
93 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
92 Microcap Russell, IWC
91 Energy SPDR, XLE
91 Energy VIPERs, VDE
90 Taiwan Index, EWT
89 Sweden Index, EWD
89 Energy DJ, IYE
88 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
87 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
86 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
86 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
85 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
84 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
84 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
83 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
82 Malaysia Index, EWM
81 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
81 Mexico Index, EWW
80 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
79 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
79 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
78 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
77 Technology DJ US, IYW
76 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
76 MidCap Russell, IWR
75 Hong Kong Index, EWH
74 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
74 Industrial SPDR, XLI
73 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
72 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
71 Energy Global, IXC
71 Materials SPDR, XLB
70 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
69 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
69 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
68 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
67 Commodity Tracking, DBC
66 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
66 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
65 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
64 Growth VIPERs, VUG
64 South Africa Index, EZA
63 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
62 Technology SPDR, XLK
61 Water Resources, PHO
61 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
60 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
59 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
59 Canada Index, EWC
58 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
57 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
56 Financial Services DJ, IYG
56 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
55 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
54 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
54 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
53 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
52 Emerging Markets, EEM
51 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
51 Financials VIPERs, VFH
50 Singapore Index, EWS
49 Financial SPDR, XLF
49 Latin Am 40, ILF
48 Germany Index, EWG
47 Austria Index, EWO
46 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
46 Financial DJ US, IYF
45 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
44 Value VIPERs, VTV
44 Biotech SPDR, XBI
43 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
42 REIT Wilshire, RWR
41 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
41 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
40 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
39 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
39 Japan Index, EWJ
38 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
37 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
36 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
36 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
35 United Kingdom Index, EWU
34 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
34 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
33 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
32 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
31 Global 100, IOO
31 Switzerland Index, EWL
30 EAFE Index, EFA
29 Dividend International, PID
29 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
28 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
27 Netherlands Index, EWN
26 Australia Index, EWA
26 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
25 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
24 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
24 Brazil Index, EWZ
23 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
22 Indonesia MV, IDX
21 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
21 Dividend SPDR, SDY
20 France Index, EWQ
19 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
19 Health Care SPDR, XLV
18 EMU Europe Index, EZU
17 China 25 iS, FXI
16 European VIPERs, VGK
16 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
15 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
14 Belgium Index, EWK
14 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
13 Italy Index, EWI
12 Utilities SPDR, XLU
11 Financial Preferred, PGF
11 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
10 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
9 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
9 India PS, PIN
8 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
7 India Earnings WTree, EPI
6 Bond, TIPS, TIP
6 Bond, Corp, LQD
5 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
4 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
4 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
3 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
2 Spain Index, EWP
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
