Based on prices as of the close on Friday, January 28, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 115 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
98 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
97 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
96 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
96 Energy SPDR, XLE
95 Energy VIPERs, VDE
94 Energy DJ, IYE
94 South Korea Index, EWY
93 Taiwan Index, EWT
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, January 28, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
98 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
97 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
96 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
96 Energy SPDR, XLE
95 Energy VIPERs, VDE
94 Energy DJ, IYE
94 South Korea Index, EWY
93 Taiwan Index, EWT
92 Sweden Index, EWD
91 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
91 Russia MV, RSX
90 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
89 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
89 Networking, IGN
88 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
87 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
86 Industrial SPDR, XLI
86 Energy Global, IXC
85 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
84 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
84 Commodity Tracking, DBC
83 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
82 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
81 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
81 Technology DJ US, IYW
80 MidCap Russell, IWR
79 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
79 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
78 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
77 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
76 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
76 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
75 Microcap Russell, IWC
74 Germany Index, EWG
74 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
73 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
72 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
71 Austria Index, EWO
71 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
70 Technology SPDR, XLK
69 Materials SPDR, XLB
69 REIT Wilshire, RWR
68 Growth VIPERs, VUG
67 Mexico Index, EWW
66 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
66 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
65 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
64 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
64 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
63 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
62 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
61 Malaysia Index, EWM
61 Canada Index, EWC
60 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
59 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
59 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
58 Hong Kong Index, EWH
57 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
56 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
56 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
55 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
54 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
54 Water Resources, PHO
53 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
52 Value VIPERs, VTV
51 Singapore Index, EWS
51 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
50 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
49 Switzerland Index, EWL
49 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
48 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
47 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
46 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
46 Financials VIPERs, VFH
45 Global 100, IOO
44 Financial SPDR, XLF
44 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
43 Financial DJ US, IYF
42 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
41 Dividend International, PID
41 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
40 EAFE Index, EFA
39 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
39 Netherlands Index, EWN
38 Japan Index, EWJ
37 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
36 France Index, EWQ
36 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
35 Financial Services DJ, IYG
34 EMU Europe Index, EZU
34 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
33 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
32 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
31 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
31 Australia Index, EWA
30 United Kingdom Index, EWU
29 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
29 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
28 Dividend SPDR, SDY
27 Biotech SPDR, XBI
26 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
26 Emerging Markets, EEM
25 Italy Index, EWI
24 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
24 Latin Am 40, ILF
23 European VIPERs, VGK
22 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
21 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
21 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
20 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
19 Health Care SPDR, XLV
19 Belgium Index, EWK
18 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
17 Utilities SPDR, XLU
16 Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
16 South Africa Index, EZA
15 Financial Preferred, PGF
14 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
14 Indonesia MV, IDX
13 Spain Index, EWP
12 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
11 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
11 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
10 Brazil Index, EWZ
9 Bond, TIPS, TIP
9 Bond, Corp, LQD
8 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
7 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
6 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
6 China 25 iS, FXI
5 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
4 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
4 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
3 India PS, PIN
2 India Earnings WTree, EPI
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
