Based on prices as of the close on Friday, January 7, 2011.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 117 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
98 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
97 Networking, IGN
96 South Korea Index, EWY
96 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
95 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
94 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
94 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
93 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, January 7, 2011.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
98 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
97 Networking, IGN
96 South Korea Index, EWY
96 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
95 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
94 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
94 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
93 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
92 Mexico Index, EWW
91 Microcap Russell, IWC
91 Malaysia Index, EWM
90 Russia MV, RSX
89 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
89 Energy SPDR, XLE
88 Energy VIPERs, VDE
87 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
86 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
86 Hong Kong Index, EWH
85 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
84 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
84 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
83 Energy DJ, IYE
82 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
81 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
81 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
80 Taiwan Index, EWT
79 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
79 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
78 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
77 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
76 Materials SPDR, XLB
76 MidCap Russell, IWR
75 Technology DJ US, IYW
74 Industrial SPDR, XLI
74 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
73 South Africa Index, EZA
72 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
71 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
71 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
70 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
69 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
69 Sweden Index, EWD
68 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
67 Growth VIPERs, VUG
66 Technology SPDR, XLK
66 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
65 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
64 Singapore Index, EWS
64 Energy Global, IXC
63 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
62 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
61 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
61 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
60 Canada Index, EWC
59 Indonesia MV, IDX
59 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
58 Commodity Tracking, DBC
57 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
56 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
56 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
55 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
54 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
54 Emerging Markets, EEM
53 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
52 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
51 Latin Am 40, ILF
51 Biotech SPDR, XBI
50 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
49 Water Resources, PHO
49 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
48 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
47 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
46 Value VIPERs, VTV
46 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
45 REIT Wilshire, RWR
44 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
44 Financials VIPERs, VFH
43 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
42 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
41 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
41 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
40 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
39 Japan Index, EWJ
39 Financial SPDR, XLF
38 Financial Services DJ, IYG
37 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
36 Financial DJ US, IYF
36 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
35 Austria Index, EWO
34 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
34 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
33 Switzerland Index, EWL
32 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
31 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
31 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
30 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
29 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
29 United Kingdom Index, EWU
28 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
27 Dividend International, PID
26 Australia Index, EWA
26 Brazil Index, EWZ
25 Global 100, IOO
24 Germany Index, EWG
24 Dividend SPDR, SDY
23 Health Care SPDR, XLV
22 EAFE Index, EFA
21 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
21 India PS, PIN
20 India Earnings WTree, EPI
19 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
19 China 25 iS, FXI
18 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
17 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
16 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
16 Utilities SPDR, XLU
15 Financial Preferred, PGF
14 Netherlands Index, EWN
14 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
13 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
12 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
11 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
11 Bond, Corp, LQD
10 Bond, TIPS, TIP
9 European VIPERs, VGK
9 France Index, EWQ
8 Belgium Index, EWK
7 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
6 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
6 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
5 EMU Europe Index, EZU
4 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
4 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
3 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
2 Italy Index, EWI
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1 Spain Index, EWP
