Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 16, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 97 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
97 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 Singapore Index, EWS
94 Sweden Index, EWD
94 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
93 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 16, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
97 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 Singapore Index, EWS
94 Sweden Index, EWD
94 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
93 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
92 India PS, PIN
91 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
91 Silver Trust iS, SLV
90 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
89 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
89 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
88 REIT Wilshire, RWR
87 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
86 South Africa Index, EZA
86 Bond, Corp, LQD
85 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
84 Financial Preferred, PGF
84 Mexico Index, EWW
83 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
82 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
81 South Korea Index, EWY
81 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
80 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
79 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
79 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
78 Technology DJ US, IYW
77 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
76 Bond, TIPS, TIP
76 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
75 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
74 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
74 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
73 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
72 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
71 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
71 Dividend SPDR, SDY
70 Networking, IGN
69 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
69 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
68 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
67 MidCap Russell, IWR
66 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
66 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
65 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
64 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
64 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
63 Taiwan Index, EWT
62 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
61 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
61 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
60 Emerging Markets, EEM
59 Utilities SPDR, XLU
59 Hong Kong Index, EWH
58 Dividend International, PID
57 Technology SPDR, XLK
56 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
56 Canada Index, EWC
55 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
54 Switzerland Index, EWL
54 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
53 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
52 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
51 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
51 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
50 Industrial SPDR, XLI
49 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
49 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
48 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
47 Russia MV, RSX
46 Latin Am 40, ILF
46 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
45 Growth VIPERs, VUG
44 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
44 Netherlands Index, EWN
43 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
42 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
41 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
41 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
40 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
39 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
39 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
38 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
37 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
36 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
36 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
35 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
34 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
34 Value VIPERs, VTV
33 Germany Index, EWG
32 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
31 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
31 Brazil Index, EWZ
30 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
29 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
29 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
28 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
27 China 25 iS, FXI
26 Microcap Russell, IWC
26 Health Care SPDR, XLV
25 Financials VIPERs, VFH
24 Belgium Index, EWK
24 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
23 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
22 United Kingdom Index, EWU
21 European VIPERs, VGK
21 Financial DJ US, IYF
20 Materials SPDR, XLB
19 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
19 Financial SPDR, XLF
18 EAFE Index, EFA
17 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
16 Global 100, IOO
16 Japan Index, EWJ
15 Biotech SPDR, XBI
14 Australia Index, EWA
14 Commodity Tracking, DBC
13 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
12 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
11 Energy SPDR, XLE
11 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
10 Financial Services DJ, IYG
9 Energy VIPERs, VDE
9 Water Resources, PHO
8 Energy DJ, IYE
7 EMU Europe Index, EZU
6 Energy Global, IXC
6 France Index, EWQ
5 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
4 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
4 Spain Index, EWP
3 Austria Index, EWO
2 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
