Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 30, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 103 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
96 Malaysia Index, EWM
95 REIT Wilshire, RWR
94 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
94 Singapore Index, EWS
93 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 30, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
96 Malaysia Index, EWM
95 REIT Wilshire, RWR
94 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
94 Singapore Index, EWS
93 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
92 South Africa Index, EZA
91 Sweden Index, EWD
91 India Earnings WTree, EPI
90 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
89 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
89 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
88 South Korea Index, EWY
87 India PS, PIN
86 Emerging Markets, EEM
86 Financial Preferred, PGF
85 Latin Am 40, ILF
84 Industrial SPDR, XLI
84 Mexico Index, EWW
83 Russia MV, RSX
82 Brazil Index, EWZ
81 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
81 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
80 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
79 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
79 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
78 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
77 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
76 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
76 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
75 Hong Kong Index, EWH
74 Dividend SPDR, SDY
74 Silver Trust iS, SLV
73 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
72 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
71 Taiwan Index, EWT
71 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
70 Bond, Corp, LQD
69 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
69 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
68 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
67 MidCap Russell, IWR
66 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
66 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
65 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
64 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
64 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
63 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
62 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
61 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
61 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
60 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
59 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
59 Canada Index, EWC
58 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
57 Dividend International, PID
56 Networking, IGN
56 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
55 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
54 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
54 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
53 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
52 Technology DJ US, IYW
51 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
51 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
50 Microcap Russell, IWC
49 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
49 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
48 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
47 Materials SPDR, XLB
46 China 25 iS, FXI
46 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
45 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
44 Technology SPDR, XLK
44 Utilities SPDR, XLU
43 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
42 Growth VIPERs, VUG
41 Netherlands Index, EWN
41 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
40 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
39 Australia Index, EWA
39 Bond, TIPS, TIP
38 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
37 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
36 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
36 United Kingdom Index, EWU
35 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
34 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
34 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
33 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
32 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
31 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
31 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
30 Switzerland Index, EWL
29 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
29 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
28 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
27 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
26 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
26 European VIPERs, VGK
25 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
24 Financials VIPERs, VFH
24 Value VIPERs, VTV
23 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
22 Biotech SPDR, XBI
21 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
21 Germany Index, EWG
20 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
19 Financial DJ US, IYF
19 Belgium Index, EWK
18 EAFE Index, EFA
17 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
16 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
16 Global 100, IOO
15 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
14 Financial SPDR, XLF
14 Water Resources, PHO
13 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
12 Commodity Tracking, DBC
11 Japan Index, EWJ
11 Austria Index, EWO
10 Energy VIPERs, VDE
9 Energy SPDR, XLE
9 EMU Europe Index, EZU
8 Financial Services DJ, IYG
7 Energy DJ, IYE
6 France Index, EWQ
6 Health Care SPDR, XLV
5 Spain Index, EWP
4 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
4 Energy Global, IXC
3 Italy Index, EWI
2 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
