Based on prices as of the close on Friday, June 11, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 99 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
97 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
96 REIT Wilshire, RWR
96 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
95 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
94 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
94 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
93 Silver Trust iS, SLV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, June 11, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
97 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
96 REIT Wilshire, RWR
96 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
95 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
94 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
94 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
93 Silver Trust iS, SLV
92 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
91 Mexico Index, EWW
91 India Earnings WTree, EPI
90 Malaysia Index, EWM
89 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
89 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
88 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
87 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
86 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
86 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
85 MidCap Russell, IWR
84 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
84 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
83 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
82 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
81 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
81 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
80 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
79 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
79 Singapore Index, EWS
78 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
77 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
76 India PS, PIN
76 Canada Index, EWC
75 Microcap Russell, IWC
74 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
74 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
73 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
72 Industrial SPDR, XLI
71 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
71 Technology DJ US, IYW
70 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
69 Latin Am 40, ILF
69 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
68 Dividend SPDR, SDY
67 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
66 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
66 Sweden Index, EWD
65 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
64 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
64 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
63 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
62 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
61 Technology SPDR, XLK
61 Financial Preferred, PGF
60 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
59 South Africa Index, EZA
59 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
58 Bond, Corp, LQD
57 Bond, TIPS, TIP
56 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
56 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
55 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
54 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
54 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
53 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
52 Growth VIPERs, VUG
51 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
51 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
50 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
49 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
49 Emerging Markets, EEM
48 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
47 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
46 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
46 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
45 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
44 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
44 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
43 China 25 iS, FXI
42 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
41 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
41 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
40 Value VIPERs, VTV
39 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
39 Networking, IGN
38 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
37 Hong Kong Index, EWH
36 South Korea Index, EWY
36 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
35 Financials VIPERs, VFH
34 Brazil Index, EWZ
34 Dividend International, PID
33 Biotech SPDR, XBI
32 Russia MV, RSX
31 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
31 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
30 Financial DJ US, IYF
29 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
29 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
28 Utilities SPDR, XLU
27 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
26 Materials SPDR, XLB
26 Health Care SPDR, XLV
25 Financial SPDR, XLF
24 Energy SPDR, XLE
24 Water Resources, PHO
23 Energy VIPERs, VDE
22 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
21 Australia Index, EWA
21 Taiwan Index, EWT
20 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
19 Energy DJ, IYE
19 Switzerland Index, EWL
18 Financial Services DJ, IYG
17 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
16 Japan Index, EWJ
16 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
15 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
14 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
14 Global 100, IOO
13 Netherlands Index, EWN
12 Energy Global, IXC
11 United Kingdom Index, EWU
11 Commodity Tracking, DBC
10 EAFE Index, EFA
9 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
9 Belgium Index, EWK
8 Germany Index, EWG
7 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
6 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
6 European VIPERs, VGK
5 France Index, EWQ
4 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
4 EMU Europe Index, EZU
3 Austria Index, EWO
2 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Spain Index, EWP
