Based on prices as of the close on Friday, June 25, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 102 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
98 Silver Trust iS, SLV
97 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 REIT Wilshire, RWR
94 India PS, PIN
93 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, June 25, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
98 Silver Trust iS, SLV
97 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 REIT Wilshire, RWR
94 India PS, PIN
93 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
92 Malaysia Index, EWM
91 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
91 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
90 Mexico Index, EWW
89 Singapore Index, EWS
89 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
88 South Korea Index, EWY
87 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
86 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
86 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
85 South Africa Index, EZA
84 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
84 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
83 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
82 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
81 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
81 MidCap Russell, IWR
80 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
79 Microcap Russell, IWC
79 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
78 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
77 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
76 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
76 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
75 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
74 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
74 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
73 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
72 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
71 Canada Index, EWC
71 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
70 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
69 Bond, Corp, LQD
69 China 25 iS, FXI
68 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
67 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
66 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
66 Emerging Markets, EEM
65 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
64 Bond, TIPS, TIP
64 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
63 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
62 Hong Kong Index, EWH
61 Industrial SPDR, XLI
61 Sweden Index, EWD
60 Latin Am 40, ILF
59 Technology DJ US, IYW
59 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
58 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
57 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
56 Financial Preferred, PGF
56 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
55 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
54 Brazil Index, EWZ
54 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
53 Dividend SPDR, SDY
52 Russia MV, RSX
51 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
51 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
50 Biotech SPDR, XBI
49 Technology SPDR, XLK
49 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
48 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
47 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
46 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
46 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
45 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
44 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
44 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
43 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
42 Financials VIPERs, VFH
41 Growth VIPERs, VUG
41 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
40 Dividend International, PID
39 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
39 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
38 Financial DJ US, IYF
37 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
36 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
36 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
35 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
34 Taiwan Index, EWT
34 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
33 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
32 Financial SPDR, XLF
31 Value VIPERs, VTV
31 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
30 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
29 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
29 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
28 Networking, IGN
27 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
26 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
26 Switzerland Index, EWL
25 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
24 Health Care SPDR, XLV
24 Utilities SPDR, XLU
23 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
22 Water Resources, PHO
21 Japan Index, EWJ
21 Materials SPDR, XLB
20 Financial Services DJ, IYG
19 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
19 Australia Index, EWA
18 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
17 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
16 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
16 Commodity Tracking, DBC
15 Netherlands Index, EWN
14 Energy VIPERs, VDE
14 Energy SPDR, XLE
13 Germany Index, EWG
12 EAFE Index, EFA
11 Energy DJ, IYE
11 Belgium Index, EWK
10 Global 100, IOO
9 United Kingdom Index, EWU
9 European VIPERs, VGK
8 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
7 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
6 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
6 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
5 Energy Global, IXC
4 EMU Europe Index, EZU
4 France Index, EWQ
3 Austria Index, EWO
2 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Spain Index, EWP
